It used to be that Labor Day signified the beginning of the General Election Campaign season. Of the election year.
Now, with Presidential Politics beginning earlier, and with this president being more and more a lame-duck everyday, Labor Day 2007 launches the Primary Election Campaign Season.
And as a sign of how much of a lame-duck the president is, apparently, he doesn't plan on being in the country much next year, as his replacements are vying for his job.
But it's starting to look like a campaign...
Fred Thompson gave his anti-climactic announcement that he's in on "The Tonight Show," while his opponents were debating in New Hampshire. The Honeymoon that the media gave him just three or four months ago is over. Indeed, what the media giveth, the media taketh away. Reagan speechwriter Peggy Noonan opined in the Wall Street Journal that his entering the race and using Jay Leno's stage was "rude" and she begged to ask the question: "Who are you? And the reason you're running for president would be...?" Others have already characterized him as lazy and detach. On George Stephanopoulos' show George Wil, Cokie Roberts, and Sam Donaldson were piling on him non-stop. What took you so long? And why did you even show up? And then again, these allusions to him being the "Next Reagan." By the time the media's done with him he'll be the Anti-Reagan. On Saturday the Washingon Post put out a column listing Thompson's insider bona-fides. Apparently he's more of a Washington Insider than Hillary Clinton, and the plethora of senators running in both parties. And he's lazy. The pundits can't stress that enough. Thompson trying retail politics is not a nice thing to see. And there's this feeling that he doesn't really want it. Ronald Reagan, before running successfully in 1980 ran in 1976, and before that was a chief executive as Governor of California. It seems to many that Thompson is doing it just to fill in a void.
I could just see a Lloyd Bentsen moment occuring in a Republican Debate with one of the candidates turning to Thompson and telling him: "Senator, I served with Dutch Reagan. I knew Dutch Reagan. Dutch Reagan was a friend of mine. Senator, you're no Dutch Reagan!" And that'll be the end of him.
Going back to what the media giveth, the media taketh away: a month ago, they were declaring McCain's candidacy on life-support. Yesterday, David Broder wrote an article in the Washington Post entitled, "McCain Finds His Footing." And he ends the column with juxtaposing how well McCain does at Retail Politics. Remember he beat Dubya in New Hampshire in 2000. And Broder advises Thompson to pick up a thing or do from McCain. This type of media mention, which of course was then regurgitated on the Sunday talkies, can propel McCain to be the anti-Thompson. And with Thompson currently in second place, McCain can quickly push ahead, especially if he ends strong in New Hampshire.
In National Polls, Romney has lost some traction and McCain and Romney are currently in a statistical dead heat for third place. If Thompson falters, which is likely, we'll see the Battle for New Hampshire play out between Giuliani, McCain, and Romney. Here Romney has a 12 point lead over Giuliani, and Giuliani, a 5 point lead over McCain, but this can all change soon, and all change fast. Especially when we get back from Iowa where Romney is clearly in the lead there. I believe that Giuliani and McCain will quickly change their modus operandi and switch over to NH since Iowa is lost, and they'll probably leave Thompson to battle Romney there, since he plays better in the Mid-West than he does in the Northeast. Appearances on "Law and Order" notwithstanding...
In an interesting sidenote. The Florida GOP Primary has Giuliani leading, with Thompson ten points behind, and once again Romney and McCain tied for third.
No wonder Romney was the first to disavow any connections with the shoe-tapper...
Soon: The Democrats.
Monday, September 10, 2007
The Primary Election Campaign Season--The Republicans
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2 comments:
Yes and remember when Lloyd Bentsen made that remark, while the person the remark was made to was no JFK, he did go on to become the VP regardless of his spelling faux pas while Bentsen was sent to the Sunny Days retirement community.
So what if Fred does not seem as interested? Isn't there a saying that the people that are born to lead are the ones who generally don't want the job? Perhaps he was holding back from entering the race hoping that the current batch of contestants would come up with a real and viable way of making the US the "Land of Opportunity" it once was. Seeing that no appears to be up to the job, he is throwing his hat in the ring.
You made a good point about Lloyd Bentsen. He died in May of last year, and even when his death was announced, I remember that he was seen as somewhat of a relic. It's amazing how the 80's is ancient history by now.
I don't think that Thompson's reasons for entering the race at this time were as noble as you paint them out to be. I think it was pure political calculation. Thompson, like I mentioned, is an insider, and with it, he brings an experienced political staff. It's also creating a safety net. He had Name ID which allowed him to tease everyone while not suffering because of his late entry, at the same time, not being an official candidate, the media wasn't going to delve into him as earnestly as they've done with other candidates. It has begun though.
I think that there's something to be said about people who've wanted the job and have thought about it for years. Dubya never seemed to want it. Bubba did. I guess it's a difference in ego and how much of a type-A personality one indeed is. But I think that the jury's still out on what really is best--those who actively seek the office, or others whom are more non-chalant about it.
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