The You Tube Election

Now everyone can be a campaign media advisor.

With a high-speed Internet connection, some awesome editing software, and innate creativity, anyone can now make their mark on this campaign cycle by jumping on the YouTube bandwagon.

The big Internet-related story this week was the YouTube video: "I Got a Crush...On Obama." Where, as the Washington Post reports, a "leggy and curvy Obama girl," states her, well...crush on Obama.

A couple of months ago, the big YouTube political video was the metamorphosis of Apple's famous 1984 ad introducing the Mac, into an anti-Hillary video, using one of the Hillary-as-Establishment, and anti-establishment themes that are going around. This attack is mainly orchestrated by the liberal wing of the Democratic Primary, even though, as my previous post finds, Hillary is leading the liberal wing of the Democratic Primary, according to polls.

The campaigns don't know how receptive to be to these new, free, media created for them. While some might help them among YouTube and other Internet aficionados, it hasn't been made clear just how many people this will turn out for them. They don't want a rehash of Howard Dean's early Internet propelling that took place in the summer of 2004, to see it fizzle out by Iowa and being written about in a post-mortem attitude by New Hampshire. Also, when these ads go too far--which inevitably will be the case--campaigns won't want to be associated with them. Remember the Swift Votes ads and the Bush campaign moving away from them--while placidly condoning them--in 2004. Campaigns won't want to be struggling with "independent contractors" for the message. They want to control the message.

But until one can figure out what effect, if any, these ads will have on the campaigns, at least they're pretty fun to watch.

Sinking

A couple of days ago, the NBC NEWS/WALL STREET JOURNAL poll was released.

On the night that the poll was released, the NBC Nightly News with Brian Williams' lede was "Angry America." What an apt statement about a mad country.

According to the results, 70% of Americans believe that the country is heading in the wrong direction with only 1 in 5 Americans believing that the country is heading in the right direction. The record high for "wrong track" number was 71% hit in July 1992, when the president's father was campaigning against then Gov. Clinton.

66% of Americans disapprove of the the job George W. Bush is doing as president. With only 29% of Americans approving, this is a new record low for George W. Bush.

Congress isn't faring that well either. 23% of Americans approve of the job Congress is doing, with 64% disapproving. The record low in this poll for Congressional approval was 15% held in April 1992. The Democrats kept the House in the 1992 election, but of course lost it an election cycle later.

Looking ahead to 2008: Clinton has increased her lead over Obama, with Clinton actually gaining traction following the debates and Obama losing some of it because of the debates. Inside the GOP: Giuliani's lead is much more fluid, with him also losing from the debates, and Thompson--who hasn't officially declared, and of course, hasn't participated in the debates--now #2 in the race. In a head-to-head, Clinton beats Giuliani (48-43), with the numbers reversing from three months ago(47-42), and Obama beats Thompson (50-31).

But what's going on here?

The Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll also released earlier this week has fascinating internals.

In the GOP, Thompson's surge can be seen coming directly from the Religious Right, with Giuliani holding slightly because of Independents. And while Giuliani got into a religious controversy a la John Kerry a couple of weeks ago, after Thompson, he is the RR's candidate of choice.

With the Democrats, Clinton is building a perfect trifecta, bringing in Independents, Moderate and the Liberal Democrats all together to propel her to the top. (Another interesting part of the poll is that Gore is #3 following Obama.) Clinton's mastery shows how she has the best politics people of the Democratic Party working in her camp. More liberal democrats are going for Clinton over Obama and Edwards, even though, arguably, she is the most hawkish of the bunch.

And now the issues: Republican primary voters are putting national security over social issues for 2008. Among RPV's 48% say that whether or not a candidate is for/against abortion is not a factor in their deciding whom to vote for president.

And here's the two big ones: Among all primary voters, 94% believe that Iraq is an important issue that will affect the way they vote, and 81% say Immigration is an important issue that will affect the way they vote.

(Breakdown: Republicans are more interested than Democrats and Independents about the Iraq issue: 97, 94, 91; the same is true of Immigration: 88, 78, 79.)

But really, what's going on?


Is Iraq that important of an issue? Sure it polls well. But really? I think that the majority of the people whom get contacted by these pollsters volunteer Iraq as the reason of why they're so unhappy with presidential/congressional job handling. But I don't think that that's the reason. I hold onto the theory that Americans are like a movie audience. And the reason that they don't like what's going on in Iraq is because it's been going on ad nauseum. Nothing's really changed, and they want this movie to finally end. The amount of reasoned, informed discussion of the situation in Iraq is minuscule at best. Rather Iraq is what ties the American people's dissatisfaction into one nicely, defined package. The amount of American families that are being directly affected by Iraq--in terms of loved one's there, etc--is an infinitesimal proportion of the population. But it is what the American people hear day in day out about the situation in Iraq that makes them so against the war. Conventional wisdom holds that Congressional approval is so low because the American people elected the Democrats in thinking that they were going to pull the plug on the war. And that didn't happen. And no informed person thought it was going to happen either. Reality hits. Anger foments. And disapproval ensues.

Same thing with immigration. Polls contradict each other. A majority of Americans are for granting some sort of permanent status to the illegal immigrants already here, knowing that deportation isn't realistic, yet they are against the Immigration Bill. They're against the bill, but doing nothing--which is the other alternative--creates a silent amnesty by maintaining the system in a perpetual, broken-down, status-quo.

And that's the problem. The American people are indecisive. Congress and the President in turn become indecisive because they don't know what the American people want. And, its surely been the case that at times, what the American people want isn't what's right for the country. Leadership is needed. People who know what's right for America should be standing up and persuading Americans to do what's right.

But nothing is happening. Not in Washington. Not in Iraq.

And the sinking numbers will continue.

Speaking of sinking, another thing that apparently is: The Jefferson Memorial.