The End of the Honeymoon

I want to talk about John McCain.

I've wanted to talk about John McCain for awhile now. Too much press coverage on the Obama-Clinton epic struggle is leaving the Republican frontrunner with little to do, nothing to say, and becoming increasingly irrelevant as his campaign gets pushed back to the third, or fourth, package on the network newscasts.

It's bad timing. Horribly bad. Even last week when he swept through the Potomac Primaries, there he was, following another of Obama's uplifting speeches, with a cast right out of Century Village behind him, and talking about an ever-lasting war and smiling at the wrong times. Obama talks about hope. McCain talks about battle. He's a Debbie Downer.

And who can escape the media drama this Tuesday when Obama, tired of Hillary not admitting defeat, not conceding, and not congratulating him for his tenth-in-a-row victory, cut her off as she was making another primetime campaign stump speech and went on a 45-minute barnburner in Houston. All the networks cut away from Clinton mid-sentence and went to Obama as he still was giving his "thank yous." Hume on Fox had his microphone live and one can hear him screaming to his production crew to "Go" to Obama now. To borrow a phrase from the current Vice-President: the Clinton campaign is in its last throes. Veteran AP Political Writer, Ron Fournier, in the AP wire story which appeared on many newspapers around the country said that it was "panic-button time" in the Clinton Campaign. That explains the "War of Words" this week between both camps and whether or not Obama borrowed phrases from Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick. Then it doesn't help when Michelle Obama goes off saying that she's proud of her country for the first time. It hasn't been a good week for Obama.

But I want to talk about John McCain. Just when it seemed that he was going to go into semi-retirement, to catch his breath, maybe go on a short-vacation, the New York Times splashed a front-page story in today's edition, posting the story online last night at around 7:45pm. Apparently, The Times had been sitting on this story for a couple of months now, at least since December. The appearance is that The Times waited until McCain's frontrunner status was clearly established before they came out to produce this story. In it, The Times suggest that McCain's crusade on ethics and campaign-finance reform is not but a charade. That McCain has failed to practice what he has preached. In addition to that, the article insinuates that there might have been a romantic relationship between McCain and a lobbyist—so much so that during his 2000 presidential race, aides tried to keep her away from the Senator. The Washington Post's version of this led with the confrontation between the aides and the female lobbyist, Vicki Iseman.

Today McCain surrogates defended his actions on the network morning shows. Bob Bennett called it a "non-story" on Today. On Early, McCain Campaign Manager Rick Davis called it "the worst kind of tabloid journalism." At around 9:00am ET, McCain held a presser denouncing the story and any wrongdoing. Cindy McCain, who's had a more visible role in the campaign this week—what with her subtle attack on Michelle Obama's "pride"—said that "he would never do anything to not only disappoint our family, but disappoint the people of America."

The silver lining in this of course is that for the first time in a long while, McCain led the network morning newscasts, he'll probably lead tonight on the network evening newscasts and without a doubt, he'll be the top story on all the cable newsers. On Drudge, he's been the top headline for almost 16-hours now. Rush goes live on the East Coast in an hour, and he'll probably start off with this.

This gives McCain plenty of ammunition. One thing that the Conservative wing of the Republican Party absolutely abhors is The New York Times. Even though this paper previously endorsed John McCain for president, he can now come out and once again accuse The Times of displaying a liberal slant in its coverage and an incredible bias. The Times will be mentioned almost as much as John McCain today—this wouldn't happen if say, it was ABC News that broke this story. It'll be interesting to see if Rush joins the attack on The Times and somehow defend McCain today—the enemy of my enemy is my friend.

As of this post time, Huckabee hasn't come out to publicly mention anything; he'll wait to see how this plays out.

So what is this? I think it's a non-story. If this is the best that The Times has then I think that it either A) Isn't trying hard enough or B) Doesn't have much to begin with. Ethics? Are you kidding me? McCain hasn't even made ethics central to his run this time around. It's all national security all the time. This is an article that would've derailed his candidacy in 2000 which was D.O.A. anyway since the Republican establishment was hovering around Texas Gov. George W. Bush. This article is eight years too late. At the end of the day, McCain can come out winning if he's able to spin this as an unfair attack, another example of the media practicing the "politics of personal destruction." And once again—Ethics? Just imagine if Hillary pulls a miracle and she's the nominee, then the media will really have something to run with; with Billary the question will be, Where do we start?

She Wants To Debate

Sen. Clinton now wants to debate. Before when she was the front-runner, she wanted to keep them to a minimum. Sen. Obama doesn't want to debate. He'll probably win this one and they'll cut back on the number of debates, even though there's one scheduled on MSNBC next week.

Sen. Clinton believes that she performs well in Debates, with Sen. Obama, under-performing due to the heightened expectations that he receives in a debate-setting. (When compared to his speeches, he can't put out a great line in every sentence he utters in the midst of wonky details which comprise such a debate.) Sen. Clinton also believes that the ABC News debate the weekend before New Hampshire helped put her over-the-top. Maybe more debates can re-capture that magic, and make her a contender once again.

Here are the ads that went up in Wisconsin concerning the debates. The first is Sen. Clinton's followed by Sen. Obama's rebuttal.

Clinton: The Enemies List

In an AP story by Fournier, he lists the different segments of the Democratic Party who may have a bone to pick with the Clintons, and now see a way out vis-à-vis Barack Obama's ascendancy. These are people that won't think twice about abandoning the Clinton Ship as it sinks—and they'll let it sink without remorse:

• Labor leaders still angry that Bill Clinton championed the North American Free Trade Agreement as part of his centrist agenda.
  
• Social activists who lobbied unsuccessfully to get him to veto welfare reform legislation, a talking point for his 1996 re-election campaign.
  
• Some served in Congress when the Clintons dismissed their advice on health care reform in 1993. Some called her a bully at the time.
  
• DNC members who saw the party committee weakened under the Clintons and watched President Bush use the White House to build up the Republican National Committee.
  
• Senators who had to defend Clinton for lying to the country about his affair with Monica Lewinsky.
  
• Allies of former Vice President Al Gore who still believe the Lewinsky scandal cost him the presidency in 2000.
  
• House members (or former House members) who still blame Clinton for Republicans seizing control of the House in 1994.
  
• Donors who paid for the Clintons' campaigns and his presidential library.
  
• Folks who owe the Clintons a favor but still feel betrayed or taken for granted. Could that be why Bill Richardson, a former U.N. secretary and energy secretary in the Clinton administration, refused to endorse her even after an angry call from the former president? "What," Bill Clinton reportedly asked Richardson, "isn't two Cabinet posts enough?"
  

Potomac Primary 2

McCain wins Virginia amidst a heavy Evangelical turn-out propelling Huckabee competitiveness. Also, Obama beats Clinton in Virginia among Hispanics, 55-45.

Potomac Primary

Obama Big in Virginia and DC, Maryland also trending Obama; McCain Faces Huckabee Strength

Substantial victories which may repeat weekend Obama sweep. Intriguing exit poll data suggesting Obama is increasing support.

Internals:
In Virginia

• Ekes out Clinton on Economy, 60-40
• Splits Whites (Clinton 51, Obama 48)
• Takes women, 58-42. Women are key natural constituency for Clinton
• Wins among college grads and non-college grads
• Took 60% of votes of those who earn less than $50K a year
• Took 60% of votes of those who live with at least 1 Union member in Household

DC big for Obama too. Maryland is expected to come in for Obama according to exit poll trends, yet results will have to wait until 9:30pm due to poll closing extension.

GOP: Virginia and D.C. too close to call, slim lead as of post time for McCain. While it is mathematically improbable for Huckabee to overcome McCain in delegate count, the conservative electorate in the Republican Party is giving McCain a run for his money and trying to prevent inevitability for McCain. That being said, McCain may still come out tonight a lot closer to clinching the nomination.

Results continue to come in…

Not So Super Anymore

Apparently Hillary Clinton keeps a picture that she took with Barack Obama and his family inside her Senate office. She sees her rival whenever she goes to work. I'm sure that sometimes, when she sees his smiling gaze with his picture-perfect family, she can't help but think to herself, "How did you pull this off?"

She was it. Presidential campaigns are about the farce of a race and the reality of a coronation. She was the heir to the Democratic throne, the inevitable nominee; it was she who would be the agent which would bring about the Clinton restoration.

But something happened in December. The young, charismatic, inexperienced novice from Illinois, the son of a mother from Kansas and a father from Kenya, was causing a stir. Iowans—those semi-mythical citizens who've been delegated the responsibility of choosing an early leader, an early winner—opened up their hearts and listened to his message, and de-humanized him. Barack Obama is no longer a candidate but a movement.

He won in Iowa showing that a Black man could win in a white state. And that opened up the floodgates. The press, long messenger-boys for the Clintons, saw an opening and took it. They wrote her obituary and killed her candidacy. They said that Barack was unstoppable. They said that Barack was inevitable. They said that Hillary would be humiliated in New Hampshire…and then she cried.

And New Hampshire made her the second-coming of the "Comeback Kid." (The first "Comeback Kid" actually placed second in 1992.) And everyone again fell back in line. Obama was done.

But it didn't happen that way. She wins Nevada. He wins South Carolina. But Bill Clinton says that Jesse Jackson also won there. And now there's a split. She's not winning everything she's supposed to, he's winning things he's not. So they put her on a plane to accept an award that's made up ad hoc: The winner of the Florida Democratic Primary.

And Super Tuesday was supposed to be Super indeed. For the Republicans it was. John McCain defeated Mitt Romney but created the ascendancy of Mike Huckabee to prevent, however futile, the inevitability of a McCain nomination. For the Democrats it wasn't a Super night for either. It was a tie. Only 50,000 votes out of the approximately 15 million cast separated the two. And when it comes to the delegates, we have no winner. It's February and the race is too-close-to-call.

So on the morning after the night in which nothing happened, news broke that she had lent her campaign $5 million. Obama's campaign countered with the fact that they had raised almost as much in the 24-hours since Super Stalemate. And then the reasons for the media leak became clear. The Clinton ship wasn't sinking. It had not hit an iceberg, it was a tactical move created by the Clinton campaign to get her rank-and-file donor base to come out and salvage an effort that didn't need saving. At the end it was nothing more than a cheap political trick to fundraise millions of dollars, almost double the amount of the original loan, in a short time-span. She's the girl who cried wolf.

So the tie continues. Obama swept the primaries this weekend and is expected to perform strongly in the Potomac Primary this month. This will be Obama's month. But the delegate count remains razor-thin.

So thin in fact that both campaigns are using surrogates to make sure that the so-called "Super Delegates"—elected officials, party members—stay in line. Clinton is using Bill and Chelsea (prompting a reporter from MSNBC to state that the Clinton campaign has "pimped" her out; the reporter is now indefinitely suspended).

And the question will finally be will these Super Delegates go against the voice of the people, even though none exists? Democrats are tied. It is a house divided. Further division won't bode well once the nominee finally gets selected in Denver this summer after the acrimony witnessed this winter and spring.

Now both are trying to play this tired game of lowering expectations. Clinton's campaign manager, Patti Solis Doyle, a Latina was replaced with Maggie Williams, a Black woman. Clinton is saying that Obama is the frontrunner; Obama is saying that Clinton is. They do this so that when inevitably one of them wins, they'll be able to say that against the odds they did so, making their quest that much nobler, that much more extraordinary.

Obama is becoming the establishment. I guess it's about time he did. He now has a real, honest-to-God chance in taking this.

All elections are about change. It's as simple as that. Clinton could never overcome that she is more-of-the-same. The tactics that she's used are straight out of negative political playbooks. She tried to defeat her nemesis but she hasn't been able to. And this doesn't happen to a front-runner. Now Obama's leading in delegates and leading in money. But she'll stay in until the end. Peggy Noonan asked if she could lose with grace? I don't see Howard Dean being strong enough to push her to the curb. I see her fighting this until the very end, until the very last casualty, until the very last blood has been spilt. She might really lose this, and the sudden defeat of a Clinton was something that no one could have predicted.

A message of hope and "yes we can" beat out a message of thirty-five years of experience. As Obama likes to bring up—the wrong kind of experience. And it's ironic that Obama is winning this running as Clinton in '92.

The super-delegates have to give this to Obama. It's seemingly the end of the Clinton effort. He's even making the sage argument of electability now. The Republican playbook, the worst-kept secret in Washington, has been filled page-by-page with ways to defeat Hillary. Now it has to be re-written with Obama.

Tuesday showed us that there was no evident winner, but there is a loser, and that loser is Hillary Clinton. She's losing her stranglehold on what was once thought of as a fait accompli. She's losing her grip on something that she thought was rightfully hers.

If It's Saturday...

Obama wins: Lousiana, Nebraska and Washington.

A sweep for Barack Obama, making this the lede in tomorrow morning's Sunday papers.

For the Republicans:

Huckabee wins the GOP caucus in Kansas, GOP primaries in Louisiana and Washington too close to call, with Huckabee leading in Louisiana and McCain in Washington...

Developing...

Update (10:36am ET): Mike Huckabee beats John McCain in Louisiana in a squeaker, 43-42% or by a margin of 2,056 votes; John McCain prevents a Huckabee sweep by winning in Washington, where Ron Paul had a strong showing.

Weekend Videos

The following videos are from Slate Magazine, one of my favorite websites:

The first, is entitled "Obama Promises Change. Who hasn't?"



Goes to show that the only thing constant is change itself...

This second video, entitled, "Hillary's Inner Tracy Flick," compares the 2008 Democratic race to the 1999 Reese Witherspoon-Matthew Broderick "Election" movie:

Romney's Out

MITT ROMNEY DROPS OUT OF RACE...

Mitt Romney has seen the numbers, he's not going to pull any delegates to overcome McCain, and he's not willing to push more money towards his campaign.

Sources: Romney "lives to fight for another day..." He's positioning himself for another stab at it in four or eight years.

Romney to announce at CPAC publicly.

Huckabee remains where he'll do strong in other southern primaries, but McCain is now positioned to gather delegates.

Mike Huckabee might follow suit, and suspend his campaign soon, so that the McCain effort can begin forming an offensive against Obama or Clinton.

John McCain will be crowned in St. Paul come August.

Update (1:04ET): Romney at CPAC: "Soon, the face of liberalism in America will have a new name. Whether it is Barack or Hillary... I disagree with Senator McCain on a number of issues, as you know. But I agree with him on doing whatever it takes to be successful in Iraq, on finding and executing Osama bin Laden, and on eliminating Al Qaeda and terror. If I fight on in my campaign, all the way to the convention, I would forestall the launch of a national campaign and make it more likely that Senator Clinton or Obama would win. And in this time of war, I simply cannot let my campaign, be a part of aiding a surrender to terror... This is not an easy decision for me. I hate to lose... If this were only about me, I would go on. But I entered this race because I love America, and because I love America, I feel I must now stand aside, for our party and for our country."

The Post Game Show: Super Tuesday

It's somewhat difficult to thoroughly describe all the moving parts right now. Who's winning? Who's losing? Who's about done? What actually happened last night?

***

The Republicans:

The Republican race is beginning to take on a narrative of inevitability for John McCain. NBC News projects that Sen. McCain has gathered 720 delegates, needing just 471 more delegates before he gets crowned in St. Paul this summer. Govs. Romney and Huckabee trail by a wide margin (256-194). John McCain, who's guerilla campaign in 2000 proved futile against the Bush machine now finds himself, eight years later, as the establishment candidate, the bona fide front-runner, the nominee presumptive of the Republican Party for the office of President of the United States. He is it. No matter the attacks that he's received from right-wing talk radio, especially Rush Limbaugh, the party will coalesce around the McCain candidacy on the assumption that he is indeed the most electable. McCain is sending out olive branches to the different sects which comprise the Republican Party.

Tomorrow, he'll make an appearance at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in Washington D.C., where he has never been a popular figure and has failed to attend the conference in recent years. There, McCain will take on the "Son of Reagan" attributes that he has cloaked around himself since his candidacy began. He'll make the argument that once again, he is a Conservative candidate in the race. Among Conservatives actually, exit polls suggest that McCain is not faring that badly. Among Evangelicals it becomes a different story. Evangelicals are the most loyal voting bloc in the Republican Party and what has prevented Romney from picking up any votes has been Huckabee's candidacy. It is telling that last night, McCain won in states that a Republican will find difficult, if not impossible, to win come November. He picked up New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Illinois, and California; while Huckabee did well in the Solid South, winning in Georgia, Tennessee, Alabama, Arkansas, and West Virginia. Romney prevented humiliation by winning in Massachusetts where McCain had placed a last stand in an effort to strike a death blow to the Romney effort. Romney also did well in traditional Republican states such as Montana, North Dakota, and Utah (where he has a natural constituency).

John McCain is going to have to convince voters that he is one of them. At CPAC, he's going to roll out with a video showing him with Ronald Reagan, his campaign has deployed surrogates (see Dole, Bob) to trump up his Conservative credentials.

Huckabee had a great night last night. It's been the conventional wisdom that Huckabee would be a strong candidate for the Vice-Presidency—a possibility which grew with Huckabee's electoral victories on Super Tuesday. He showed that he's not a one-hit wonder, and that there are many Republican voters that are indeed attracted to his candidacy. Today Huckabee did the morning news shows making the point that while the mainstream media had written him off and made the Republican narrative a two-man race, that it was, and until now, remains a three-man race. Huckabee says that he's not done yet, but he'll pick up and end this in another month. He'll stay in just to show the establishment, and McCain himself, that he is indeed potent and viable.

Romney was supposed to be in meetings today with his staff engaging in "frank" discussions as to where his campaign goes from here. Romney sees the writing on the wall, and he's restrained himself in further attacking McCain. Romney will pull out before the Convention, since he does not want to be a spoiler of inevitability, and he's thinking about the future, four years down the line, eight years down the line, when the party becomes grateful for how he handled himself during this campaign and may indeed favor him for the nomination in the future.

This was always supposed to happen. The Republican Party is the party of order, organization, and hierarchy. The Republicans always crown an heir-apparent and create a standard-bearer. There's no chaos in the Republican Party. There's whose-turn-is-it-now. Over the last election cycles, it's been this way. This is the party that nominates George W. Bush. This is the party that nominates Bob Dole.

In fact, the last two times that there's been chaos at Republican Party conventions were because of Ronald Reagan. The first-time in 1976, the closest we've come to a floor-fight in recent years, occurred because Reagan was viable enough to mount an effort against the sitting president, Gerald Ford, for the nomination. At the end Ford won the nomination but lost the General Election against Jimmy Carter. In 1980, there were some moments of late-night drama when rumors hit the floor that Reagan was in talks with Ford to offer Ford the Vice-Presidency. The negotiations broke apart when no one could figure out exactly how Ford's vice presidency would practically work since he was a former president of the United States. Many spoke of co-presidencies (see Clinton, William J. and Hillary), and at the end, Reagan gave the vice presidency to George H.W. Bush who would create the linear path to the presidency for George W. Bush.

***

The Democrats:

I guess the biggest surprise from last night was Clinton's margin of victory in California. Once again, the "Shock Poll" that was splashed on Drudge all day was wrong. It was New Hampshire all over again. At the end of the day, Clinton won by 10 (52-42), with help from strong Hispanic support, a majority of women voters, and lower-than-expected African-American turnout. Obama won thirteen states, Clinton won 9. She won the big Democratic states, and Obama did well in traditional "Red" states.

The thing about the Democrats…they're tied.

Depending on which delegate projections you believe (I'm sticking with NBC's), it's thisclose. Some projections have Clinton +79. Others are not attempting to project whether the Super Delegates who pledged support will stick by the candidate in the future. Be it as it may, when it comes to delegates—and a Democrat needs 2,025 to win—it's a tie. Super Tuesday did not decide anything. It's made the race tighter, and it will make it longer. Next week the so-called "Potomac Primary" will take place, and many believe that Clinton and Obama will once again split the votes and the delegates there.

The Democrats have two candidates that resonate with their base this time. Nationwide, close to 14 million Democrats voted last night. Clinton won the popular vote by around 53,000 votes—or less than ½ of 1%. It's that close.

Howard Dean has already stated that if by May there's no clear front-runner, no clear winner—which there isn't at this point—that he'll try to step in and broker a deal in order to avoid a floor-fight at the Convention in Denver.

Chris Matthews tried to get his panel to declare who's the front-runner in the Democratic race. No one gave a clear answer. The front-runner is Barack Obama. What he pulled off last night was an astonishing feat. In states where just a couple of months ago he was 20 points, 30 points behind, he was able to narrow the margin, and indeed won some of them.

His biggest win was to ensure that Hillary Clinton is not the inevitable candidate anymore. New Hampshire made Hillary the second incarnation of the "Comeback Kid" but will the future prognostications hold? Conventional Wisdom holds that if Super Tuesday would've been next week and not last night, Obama might have indeed won big in California and in other states where he was making important gains. The momentum's with Obama. He is the knight, and his mission, his journey, as Maureen Dowd wrote today, is "to slay the dragon." And the Dragon can be slain. And the death blow will come not by a sword, but by a wallet.

Obama is about to raise another $30 Million this month. Previously he raised $32 Million in January. Since last night, he's raised $4 Million. His donors haven't been exhausted like Clinton's. Clinton has probably the best fund-raiser in the Democratic Party in the person of Terry McAuliffe, and he can't fundraise anymore. Clinton's donor rolls have been exhausted because most have given the allowable limit. It was shocking when Drudge had a red-colored alert all day today shouting to the world that Clinton had lent herself, err her campaign, $5 Million. That coupled with the news that some of her staffers are now working pro bono—going without pay for this month—suggests a campaign in crisis. Hillary Clinton, the once inevitable candidate, the long-time front-runner, has a cash flow problem. This doesn't happen to a front-runner. And we already had one Lazarus in this campaign.

Super Tuesday Results 5

CLINTON, MCCAIN WIN CALIFORNIA

The big results came in almost simultaneously around 12:15am.

Clinton: Held onto lead in California, lower-than-expected African-American turnout, Clinton keeps Hispanics without much erosion. An important factor that might have been a key to her success was early-voting: Many people voted before Obama took off as of late with his momentum, adding credence to the conventional wisdom that if Super Tuesday would have been held one week later, Obama might have fared better in California. Clinton's lead in California is indeed quite substantial. Women made up 55% of California Democratic voters, 57% voted for Clinton. 65% of Hispanics voted for Clinton. As the delegates come in, we'll have a clearer picture as to where this race stands, but I believe it's not completely over for Obama.

McCain: Arnold Schwarzenegger's endorsement might have been the key to putting McCain over the top. Among Republican voters many approved of Gov. Schwarzenegger and among those who approved of him, they went for McCain. More exit polling data to be posted as they become available.

Today, Wednesday, Romney will have "frank discussions" with his staff as to where he goes from here.

The narrative will be on full display later this morning as the spinning continues when Today, Good Morning America, and The Early Show go live on the East Coast.

Update (12:57am ET): NBC News predicts that the Delegate count for Democrats as of right now has Obama +4, 841-837.

Update (8:25am ET): RCP's delegate counts with the overnight numbers coming in have Clinton leading Obama in the Delegates count, 897-822, which has Hillary +75.

Update (8:43am ET): Tim Russert went on the Today show, saying that NBC's projections hold that Obama captured 840 delegates last night, to Clinton's 830. The Obama Campaign believes that they won 845 delegates to Clinton's 836, as shown on a spreadsheet which they released. They also state that in terms of total delegates number, Obama has 908 pledged delegates to Clinton's 884.

Note: RCP is using projections gather from the Associated Press, Washington Post, CBS News and RCP's own numbers. At this point, however, with how NBC and the Obama campaigns have successfully analyzed the race (the Obama campaign was the first to accurately state that they had indeed won more delegates in Nevada), I trust that the NBC News and Obama numbers give us higher confidence in their prognostication. DrudgeReport also believes this as he has made "Election Shock: Obama passes Clinton in Delegate Count" as its top headline.

Super Tuesday Results 4

At the end of the day, it's about the delegates. The widget that I have on the right side-bar denotes the official delegate count as assigned by official election results, according to the NBC News Politics Desk.

Obama and McCain are still awaiting the results coming out of California, which might take awhile to come in. More than a million voters voted with absentee ballots and they need to be counted and can indeed sway the campaign. We may not have substantial numbers until early tomorrow morning.

That being said, McCain is pulling far ahead of Romney in delegate count, and Huckabee might even have more delegates than Romney when all is said and done. If this happens, Huckabee, who until tonight was a one-hit wonder (Iowa) might indeed become viable again and be the "Conservative" alternative to McCain. Depending on what happens in California, McCain may not have this completely locked. Again, it's all California. As of right now (11:33ET), with 6% of precincts reporting, McCain leads Romney by 100,000 votes in California. Romney might indeed not pursue this to the end, positioning himself for another presidential run. He's not that popular within the establishment and he doesn't want to ruin his chances to become the standard-bearer of the party in the future. We might have a Republican nominee by the end of the week, even as early as tomorrow.

The Obama campaign says that their internal Delegate number shows Obama leading 606-534. Conventional wisdom holds than neither candidate on the Democratic side pulls away from a with a substantial delegate margin after tonight, therefore the nominee may indeed take some time to decide, with a small possibility that we'll once again witness an honest-to-God Convention floor fight when the Democrats meet in Denver come late August.

Update (11:45ET): Obama: "Our Time Has Come..."

Super Tuesday Results 3

Trends (as of 10:30ET):

• Obama has won 8 states, Clinton 6
  
  • Obama campaign said to be "over-performing" in some states which can help when the delegate count is accurately assigned
    
  • Hillary wins Massachusetts which puts into question how potent the Kennedy endorsement really was
    
  • Early worry in the Clinton camp since it took some time to call Tennessee—a couple of months ago Tennessee was solidly Clinton
    
• McCain has won six states, Huckabee three states, Romney two states
  
  • McCain is performing strongly in traditional states which would be considered solid "blue" in the General election
    
    • Picks up states that were once considered to be Giuliani gains
      
  • Romney retains Massachusetts where McCain had stopped to campaign in an effort to humiliate Romney
    
  • Huckabee strong in the south…suggestions arise that he'll become a viable candidate for Veep
    
• Exit Poll snapshots:
  
  • Economy is the most important issue for both Democrats and Republicans (45-47).
    
    • Democrats after economy: War (29), Healthcare (18)
      
    • Republicans after economy: Illegal Immigration (22), Iraq (20)
      
    • 44% of Republicans believe the economy is good, 8% of Democrats agree
      
  • Democrats are looking for change over experience, and Obama 72% believe Obama can bring change. 25% believe that of Clinton
    
  • More Democrats believe Clinton would make a better Commander in Chief, but Obama would unite the country
    
  • Demographics:
    
    • Obama gaining among women and whites, almost splitting and at times beating Clinton in the White Male vote; Clinton leading among Hispanics
      
    • McCain leads among Moderates, Romney among Conservatives
      
    • Evangelicals: Almost split evenly among the three Republicans
      

The "Big Enchilada," California, polls close in half an hour as of this posting.

Super Tuesday Results 2

OBAMA WINS GEORGIA

Just after 7:00 ET when the polls in Georgia closed, the networks went ahead and projected Barack Obama the winner in Georgia. Significance: Called early thus exit polls must show strong Obama trending. This was one of the keys to look for as Super Tuesday began, if Obama would've had some problem here, then it would not bode well for his nationwide effort. Obviously that has not come to pass.

For the Republicans, it is a tight three-way race for first.

Update (10:42ET): Huckabee wins Georgia.

Super Tuesday Television Media Coverage

Super Tuesday coverage may parallel Election Night coverage on the networks:

• ABC NEWS: Charlie Gibson, Diane Sawyer and George Stephanopoulos anchor from 8:00pm ET – 1:00am ET, or later…
  
• NBC NEWS: Brian Williams anchors, with analysis from Tim Russert and Tom Brokaw and NBC News Correspondents from 10:00pm ET – 11:00pm ET
  
• MSNBC: Chris Matthews and Keith Olbermann, joined by Brian Williams, Tim Russert, Tom Brokaw, Joe Scarborough and others anchor from 6:00pm ET – 2:00am ET
  
• CBS NEWS: Katie Couric, joined by Bob Schieffer and Jeff Greenfield, anchor from 9:00pm ET – 11:00pm ET
  
• CNN: Wolf Blitzer, Anderson Cooper, Lou Dobbs, Campbell Brown, Larry King and CNN Correspondents anchor from 6:00pm ET – 2:00am ET
  
• FOX NEWS: Brit Hume, Sheppard Smith, Sean Hannity, Alan Colmes, Bill O'Reilly and Fox News Correspondents anchor from 6:00pm ET – 2:00am ET

First Super Tuesday Results...

West Virginia: Huckabee wins Caucus...

As The Page is reporting, there are rumors of a deal between McCain and Huckabee to stop Romney from capturing W. Virginia where he was ahead by 8 votes at the party convention for the delegates. This lends credence to the notion that there might be a McCain-Huckabee ticket come fall, if McCain is indeed the presumptive nominee after tonight.

Huckabee now adds 18 delegates, further making tonight an uphill battle for Romney.

More to come...

Update (3:57 ET): Romney Campaign responds to deal: "Sadly, Senator McCain cut a Washington backroom deal in a way that once again underscores his legacy of working against Republicans."

Update (11:06 ET): Huckabee confirms on MSNBC in an interview with Chris Matthews, saying that there was no deal with the McCain campaign in West Virginia, as was announced by the Romney campaign. Huckabee: "John McCain and I actually believe that politics can be conducted in a civil, gentlemanly way...I know that this may be a shock to the Romney campaign."

Super Tuesday Update

Romney and McCain launch the first shots on Super Tuesday, hijacking the morning news cycle:



Romney went on Fox this morning, after Bob Dole publicly chided Rush Limbaugh yesterday when Dole sent him a letter telling him to stop his public attacks on McCain. Following Romney's statements, McCain has repeatedly called on Romney to apologize. Romney landed in California where Drudge is reporting a new daily tracking shock poll which has him up by 7 there. The same poll has Obama up by 13, yesterday by 6.

Romney also released this web-only ad as he's trying to jump on the bandwagon that Conservatives in the party started trying to derail the McCain inevitability:



The Democrats are being fairly quiet this morning, Barack Obama will be in Chicago, Clinton in New York.

Look at Georgia, Massachusetts, Missouri and New Jersey as they close before 9:00 ET. If Georgia goes big for Obama it's going to be a good night for him. McCain is also trying to embarass Romney in Massachusetts and pick up New Jersey. Missouri is going to be tight, between Clinton and Obama, Obama having the endorsement of popular freshman Senator Claire McCaskill.

The Pre-Game Post: Super Tuesday

I've noticed that in every non-incumbent presidential election there's always a political party which the media favors covering. From the elections that I've witnessed first-hand the party which receives the most media coverage wins. It comes back to the most rudimentary of voting theories: Name I.D. (recognition) is the number one factor which determines electability. In 2000, there was more media attention with the Republicans and the Bush-McCain battle. This year, the media attention lies squarely with the Democrats and the Clinton-Obama battle. Among them, Barack Obama is getting the most media attention. Second to him: Bill Clinton.

***

Tomorrow California votes. Channeling Rather and Nixon, California is the Big Enchilada with 441 delegates. It is not a winner-take all state, so most likely Hillary Clinton and Obama will split the vote. Yet, there's nothing like a person being declared the "winner" of California. As of this morning, there's a statistical tie out there, with Clinton being up, on average (taking into account the latest polls) by .06, while Obama is up by 1 in two polls, and by 6 in the Reuters/C-Span/Zogby poll.

Yesterday on Meet the Press, Carville said that if Clinton doesn't take California, she'll have an uphill battle as the road to the Convention continues. Clinton is counting on support from the major metropolitan areas such as Los Angeles, San Francisco and San Diego. Obama is banking on support from more suburban voters in eastern California. Clinton is also relying on Hispanic turnout to propel her over the top tomorrow. This Hispanic turnout was instrumental in Clinton's "win" over Obama in Nevada—there's something about 10,500 voters with a margin of only 582 votes separating Clinton and Obama that doesn't wreak of a win for Clinton (even though Bush won the presidency in Florida by 537). Clinton pollster Sergio Bendixen received blogosphere fame earlier this year when, in an interview with The New Yorker stated that "The Hispanic voter—and I want to say this very carefully—has not shown a lot of willingness or affinity to support black candidates." Talk about descriptive voting…This might all change tomorrow in California if Obama wins, and especially if he makes substantial in-roads among Hispanic voters. Obama's falling behind Clinton in capturing the Hispanic vote because of name identification. Hispanic voters know the Clinton family, know the Clinton brand. They know Hillary and Bill and they know they're Democrats just like them. Hispanics haven't been introduced to the phenomenon that is Barack Obama. But he's trying to introduce himself, and if he can capture a good percentage of the Hispanic vote, HRC's playbook for California might just become moot. Obama captured an important endorsement just ahead of Super Tuesday: La Opinion, the largest Spanish-language newspaper.

California's going to be big and if the numbers in the Reuters poll holds then it's going to be a good night for the Obama effort. Maria Shriver, California's first lady, has joined her cousin Caroline Kennedy in endorsing Obama. (Her husband, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger has endorsed McCain.) Obama's playing offense against Hillary with Oprah, Caroline Kennedy, and Shriver all in California campaigning for him.

The Democrats also debated last week and it was a venerable love-fest. The acrimony present at the Republican debate—more below—was missing. There was also talk about a "Dream Team" combination. The Democrats had to come back from the brink. After the State of the Union and the supposed "snub"—Obama not shaking Clinton's hand—everything has mellowed out. Leading up to that, and the uncontrollable Bill Clinton spouting his mouth at every opportunity he could, they were both en route to self-destruction and a fragmented convention. If history teaches us anything, it is that the voter's—or at least those that actually tune-in to watch convention coverage, now relegated to one hour a night, three out of the four nights on the broadcast channels—do not like a fragmented convention. It's good that Bill has been reined in. That's no way for a former president of the United States to be behaving.

***

On the Republican side, all signs pointed to the possibility that the party would unite itself around McCain. He's even planning a weekend trip to Europe. His top advisor is planning a vacation. McCain is the most electable, beating both Clinton and Obama—narrowly. Clinton and Obama beat any other Republican running for president.

Apparently the Republican leadership however didn't get the memo. Today's Washington Post is splashing with a front-page story on McCain and most specifically, his temper. This was the top headline on Drudge for many hours in the morning.

McCain has the ability to seal the deal tomorrow night. If he takes California, which all signs point to yes and a number of other states, all he really needs is to be up by at least 100 delegates over Romney. The question will then become as to when Romney is going to call it quits. He has money and he has some of the establishment falling behind him. To say nothing of the fact of Rush Limbaugh who still controls a powerful soapbox is railing against McCain almost on a daily basis. It's also as if he never got the memo that McCain is about to become the standard-bearer of the Republican Party.

***

Super Tuesday is a dress rehearsal for the networks. ABC is going on all-night coverage. CBS is going to do two hours in primetime, and NBC is going to do one, with continuing coverage on MSNBC. The network anchors are in place from their customized election-central sets in New York. The print and on-air, and yes the blogging correspondents are all deployed with their respective campaigns. And this election cycle has shown us that we're all wrong. I was reading some posts I wrote earlier on this blog in which I contended that no matter what happened, Hillary Clinton was unstoppable that she was going to win everything and win big. And that didn't come to fruition.

When Clinton lost in Iowa, all eyes turned to impending death in New Hampshire. The media took her teary-eyed episode the day before as signs that she knew it was all over. Bill was attacking the Obama campaign as being nothing more than a fairy-tale. Today with polls showing Clinton losing her lead in California, there's another semi-tearful episode to report.

But the media wrote the Clinton Campaign obituary after Iowa. She resurrected after New Hampshire, and then became a favorite after meaningless wins in Nevada and Florida, and many still believe that she is inevitable. Even though a great number do not want to see a restoration to another scandal-prone, polarized Clinton White House. Once again, Gore Vidal's belief that we live in the United States of Amnesia harkens truth. It'll be a return to all that we ran away from when we voted for Bush. It'll be a return to the drama, to a state of civil war in Washington. Another do-nothing Administration and another do-nothing Congress. No one really expects Bill Clinton to stay out of policy-making deliberations. A Bill Clinton with nothing to do in the White House is a scary thought. Scary in the sense that he'll run his mouth like he's doing now, causing more harm than good. As Ambassador to the World, he'll do pretty well, since he is almost universally liked outside of America, but there's obviously no chance that he'll stay out of America. Two Clintons in the White House: a shivering thought indeed.

The question is can Obama take it? Even though McCain is the only Republican that beats both Clinton and Obama, he beats Obama narrowly. There are a lot of what-ifs. What if the base isn't as motivated to come out and vote for McCain if he's running against Obama? Who's going to be McCain's running mate? A lot of murmurings surround the question with the belief that it's going to be Huckabee, that that's the only reason why he's remained in the race. By Huckabee staying in, he's siphoning votes off of Romney's potential in-roads. Huckabee joins the ticket and the base will have someone to come out and vote for. There was some press two weeks ago talking about how Romney is not popular with the other contenders. Life as High School. Assuming that it's going to be McCain versus Clinton, it is safe to assume that the base will come out strong for McCain on Election Day. The only thought that scares the base more than one Clinton in the White House is two of them. With Clinton on the top of the ticket, McCain will have more flexibility in choosing a running mate who is more centrist and moderate.

Tomorrow night's going to be big. McCain can become the standard bearer of the Republican Party going forward, and Obama may become the heir to Camelot, ending the, what was once thought of inevitable, Clinton ascendancy.

McCain and Obama: Change versus more of the same. Stay tuned.

Obama Videos

Barack Obama's campaign bought local tv airtime in 24 states during the Super Bowl last night. My homestate of Florida was not one of them since our primary already occurred. Local TV airtime is cheaper than national airtime. This is the 30-second spot which aired:



The following is also a 4:30 music video hitting the web. The producer is will.i.am from the Black Eyed Peas and features an array of pop culture stars, including Scarlett Johansson, Kate Walsh and others. Obama's "Yes We Can" speech as art:

Not off to a good start...

Much like "The Daily Nightly," the blog for the NBC Nightly News with Brian Williams, I'm going to take you the reader behind the scenes...

There probably won't be a post today because of the Super Bowl, etc., and other "personal" events that I've committed myself to, e.g., a Super Bowl party...

But Post-Game--by "Game" I mean Super Tuesday--analysis forthcoming this week.

I'll also see how many words I'll actually be jotting down. 2,000 a week seem somewhat excessive. Eventually I'll make a decision on whether I should post once a week, like Frank Rich, or do two 800-words essay twice a week.

Today notwithstanding, I'm also removing time-limits. 11am ET on Sundays restricts me since many times, news-worthy interviews are conducted on Meet the Press, Face the Nation, or This Week which should be posted. The only thing I could promise right now is that posts will come at anytime Sundays and Wednesdays...

Thanks for checking in...