The Long Campaign Continues

It's been nearly a month since I last wrote, and at the end, nothing has changed.

Yes, we've had the revelation that Sen. Obama's spiritual guide, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright apparently asks God to damn America.

And yes, we've had Sen. Clinton's Bosnia fairytale (as Times columnist Frank Rich dubs it)—you know the one where she swears she (and Sinbad and Sheryl Crow) was under sniper-fire while visiting troops in Bosnia during her tenure as first lady. While this had been debunked months ago, the former first lady and former presumptive Democratic nominee for the presidency continued to spew such fibs. It took the CBS Evening News to go back to the pool video and show that Sen. Clinton indeed had a safe landing. She arrived in Bosnia with Chelsea. That CBS Evening News clip was promulgated by Drudge linking to the YouTube video of it. It got more views than Wright's fiery sermons.

It fit the narrative: Clinton's a liar. And isn't that a narrative that fits so well with that family that we're all too familiar with? It's her "I did not have sexual relations with that woman." It harkens back to the narrative that the Bush campaign pinged on Vice-President Gore back in 2000: Al Gore swore he invented the internet.

And everyone's talking about Bosnia and the Clinton campaign is saying that she misspoke and that it's all due to sleep deprivation…this coming from the candidate who said that she's the most prepared to answer that red phone at, yes, 3 in the morning.

And everyone's forgotten about Wright and about the watershed speech that Obama delivered concerning race. That speech, one of the greatest political speeches in a generation, will be only remembered by simple sound bites: "I am the son of a black man from Kenya and a white woman from Kansas" and "I can no more disown him [Wright] than I can my white grandmother - a woman who helped raise me, a woman who sacrificed again and again for me, a woman who loves me as much as she loves anything in this world, but a woman who once confessed her fear of black men who passed by her on the street, and who on more than one occasion has uttered racial or ethnic stereotypes that made me cringe."

That's what happens when you schedule an important and long overdue speech on race in America, in the morning. Rookie mistake.

March wasn't a good month for either Democratic Candidate or the Democratic Party itself. It was full of gaffes and indecision.

***

But where do we go from here?

Clinton has said that she's not going to pull-out. Obviously. She's said that she was going to wait until the people have spoken. Yes, how noble of her. She was going to wait for Pennsylvania…and Puerto Rico to vote. June 3^rd is the last election. DNC Chairman Howard Dean wants this rapped up by July 1^st. But…Clinton spoke to the Washington Post today and said that she wasn't going to rest until Michigan and Florida are counted (where was she when the DNC disenfranchised millions of voters last fall?) and that if it had to come to it, well, that's what the Credentials Committee at the Convention is for. The Credentials Committee! She's going to see this through the very end and take the Democratic National Convention in Denver hostage. She will not give up. She will not surrender. Even if they count Florida and Michigan and even if she wins Pennsylvania, which she's likely to do, it doesn't add up. The delegate count just doesn't add up. It's not going to put her over the top. It's not going to change anything. She'll make the argument that she wins the big states and that she's won more recently—this even though today's revelation that because of the Texas "prima-caucus," Obama actually won there.

And that's the big problem. Bill Maher on Friday's show asked what the big deal was for Clinton to stay in and to allow the process to naturally unfold—to let the voters decide, to make every vote count. The process never unfolds naturally. No one likes a split convention. A couple of years ago I wrote an essay in which I compared the 1968 presidential election to every presidential we've had since. This paragraph is pertinent as to why the Democrats need a nominee by Convention time:

In the battle between perception and reality, it is also important to note the changes and evolutions in nominating conventions. Where 1952 was seen as the first televised convention, 1968 was the first dramatic one. Image-makers not only had to deal with a candidate's image, but also, with the image of the convention itself. Whereas in 1968 at Miami Beach, the Republicans presented a convention of unity and order, the convention at Chicago was anything but. Theodore White stated that "At Chicago, for the first time, the most delicate process of American politics was ruptured by violence, the selection of Presidents stained with blood." Americans were appalled at what was occurring on the streets in Chicago, and what was occurring inside the convention hall. Those watching Walter Cronkite's coverage on the CBS Television Network saw a young Dan Rather being punched on the floor of the Convention Hall and taken down by Convention security, "Cronkite then delivered one of those sound bites that get aired again and again for years to come: 'I think we've got a bunch of thugs in there, Dan'." Then and there, the Democrats' hope for a victory in 1968 ended. The Convention was in such a state of chaos that President Johnson—officially leader of the Democratic Party—did not attend the convention. In 1980, coupled with the important and salient background events which were occurring, there was discontent inside Madison Square Garden where the Democratic National Convention was held, after the sitting President, Jimmy Carter, was challenged by Sen. Edward Kennedy for the presidency, and at the end, we saw the famous image captured by television cameras which displayed the delicate waltz which took place by which Carter and Kennedy never shook hands on the convention stage. This event was seized by the pundits on television and re-played over-and-over again as a sign of disunity in the party. In 1992, it was the Republican's turn to seem extreme and not united. At the Astrodome in Houston, Texas, what was supposed to be a rousing night for Ronald Reagan's last speech at the Convention was split, with Reagan's speech being pushed to 11:00 p.m. and Pat Buchanan taking the 10:00 p.m. primetime hour. This push to a 10:00 p.m. slot made by the networks, especially NBC, cost Bush and his convention the image that they wanted to portray. NBC's executive producer, Bill Wheatley recalls that, "On two separate instances we saw them hold the convention waiting for us to come on the air…We were still in our opening when they introduced [Quayle]. There was this tremendous roar, and Tom [Brokaw] just picked it up." The one that really hurt Bush was Buchanan's speech which "after its opening applause lines for the nominee, went on to summon not only Buchanan's own following but the entire Republican Party to a 'religious war' against gays, inner-city toughs and the likes of Hillary Clinton." That same year at Madison Square Garden, the 1992 Democratic National Convention was perfectly orchestrated, went off without any serious gaffes, and was up-lifting and optimistic. The Republicans came back in 2000 and at Philadelphia, gave key-note speech slots to the likes of Colin Powell, John McCain, Gen. Norman Schwarzkopf, Jr., and Condoleezza Rice. This created the image of a new, moderate Republican Party going along the theme of "Compassionate Conservatism" which Bush wanted to create. On the other hand, at the Staples Center in Los Angeles, there were undercurrents which pointed towards disunity in the party, when Bill Clinton was pushed to a Monday night speech, and then ignored for the rest of the convention. This went in line with the Gore Campaign wanting to distance themselves from Clinton for the General Election, and which many consider might have hurt Gore in his quest for the presidency.

Now I'm not saying that the Democratic Convention in Denver in 2008 will be just like the Democratic Convention in Chicago in 1968. I don't expect violence but I do expect political blood being spilt if Hillary Rodham Clinton takes this to the Credentials Committee and more so, if the Super-Delegates go contrary to whom the pledged Delegates chose. It would be a nomination stolen. If the Super-Delegates indeed overturn the voice of the people, if they overturn the people's choice, then what we will have will be the disenfranchisement anew of Democrats and a party uncontrollable. They'll be yelling bloody murder in the streets of Denver. They denied the first viable Black man the nomination for president of the United States. Obama's leading in the delegate count, most states won, and most votes cast. The Super-Delegates will have no choice but to re-affirm the pledged delegates, which then calls into question the reasoning for the Super-Delegates: if it's just to rubber-stamp and to be redundant…what's the point of their existence?

If Democrat's can't run their own convention, can't control their own people, what gives the American people the confidence that they can run a country?

And I echo David Brooks' belief (another Times columnist) who says that the reason that Hillary Clinton needs to get out is not because she's weak, but because she's strong. And yes, it's a little nonsequitor. Put aside the fact that in today's Gallup tracking poll Obama's lead over Clinton is now at 10-points, with her winning Pennsylvania and a handful of others, she'll continue to make the case that there's momentum for her now, that people want her in it, and that she'll be there for the people. There won't be any stopping her. She'll think that she's it, that she can turn this ship around, that she can salvage this ship who hit the iceberg long ago. It's delusional. She'll take this to the Convention and the whole world will watch what a split convention is. Can you just picture it? There might be walk-outs! Supporters of the losing candidate leaving the hall and the image replayed ad-nauseum on TV for everyone to see. Juxtapose that with McCain's convention. It'll be neat. It'll be orderly. It'll be just like the 2000 Republican love-fest in Philadelphia.

 

This was supposed to be the year of the Democratic Restoration. The economy is going south, the war has hit the 4,000^th American casualty, and the sitting Republican president remains unpopular. This was supposed to be the year of the Democratic Restoration.

It's amazing but the Democrats found a way to blow it again.

624787

John McCain has released his first General Election campaign ad, and wow, it's something else.

He looks poised, ready, and presidential. And more than that, it introduces a number that we're all going to become too familiar with as the General Election campaign begins--once the Democrats of course settle their mess. That number: 624787.

He Can’t Put Her Away

She's alive.

Hillary Rodham Clinton declares that momentum is now with her. She arrived in Washington this morning at 3am (it's always 3am) and three hours later she was preparing to undergo the "Full Ginsburg"—so-called when former Lewinsky attorney William Ginsburg showed up on all 5 Sunday-morning shows a decade ago. In the morning she declared that Obama's momentum had ended, that people were now taking a strong and hard look at both candidates and decided that she was the best choice. David Gregory on Today asked Sen. Obama, "Why are the voters reluctant to vote for you?"

It's turned.

Why can't he put her away? Why can't the knight slay the dragon? He's had his chance. He could've done it after Iowa, He could've done it after South Carolina, and he was expected to do it last night.

The media is setting expectations. They're dying to pounce on Clinton. They've been smelling blood for eight weeks now and are trying to rid themselves of Clinton. After SNL picked this up upon its return to the airwaves it became political narrative. Clinton used it at the MSNBC debate last week and another SNL opener this weekend re-affirmed that image. She didn't cry this time. But she did play the role of victim. She kept on pushing the story line that the media was too negative, that it was too bullying. On his campaign plane en route back home to Chicago, Obama acknowledged this saying that media portrayals of Hillary hurt him and help her. The base loves the victim of crass bullying. Obama said that she won vis-à-vis the "kitchen sink" strategy—throwing everything but the kitchen sink at him. And she did.

Clinton won last night on national security. Those who were late-deciders went over to Clinton's camp when it came time to vote. The only narrative that was really effective was the narrative of national security, yes, the 3am call. She won using a Republican tactic. It goes to show that security is, at the end, a factor in voting—even in the Democratic base. If Hillary won on national security, then in a face-to-face general, McCain will beat Hillary on national security.

General Election: There's no way that Hillary wins Texas; McCain will take that one. Ohio will be tricky. Hillary will win Ohio running against NAFTA and promising for economic change. McCain will face difficulty defending NAFTA and globalization in Ohio.

But going back to the basics: Why can't Obama take her out? Is it that Hillary really really really wants to win? Is it that from now on they'll throw everything at him to see what sticks? It's her tenacity. It's the fact that nevermind his many campaign faux pas, she is married to the best political strategist in the Democratic Party.

Obama's impotence in taking Clinton out casts questions as to his viability and whether or not he could mount a successful General Election campaign against Sen. McCain. These questions arise even though in General Election matchups, he performs better against McCain than Clinton does—McCain beats Clinton handily in both the electoral college map projection (I can't wait till we start talking about the map) and in national poll numbers. Obama gives McCain a run for his money.

But while the Democrats are fighting, McCain is having lunch with President Bush at the White House. It's a three-way race for November, and McCain now has the Republican National Committee and its powerful political apparatus as a branch office of John McCain 2008. His campaign now has an influx of at least $30 Million from the RNC while Clinton and Obama continue spending money competing against each other, drying up their respective donor bases and putting them at a general monetary disadvantage for the fall campaign.

I received this mass mailing email from John McCain this afternoon:

As we come to the end of our party's primary contest, we begin what will certainly be a spirited and hard-fought campaign against the Democratic nominee. In November, Americans will have a clear choice to make. And I intend to fight as hard as I can to make it very clear that I am the candidate with the experience and leadership to serve as our commander in chief from day one. (Emphasis his.)

From Day One. This is the same argument that Hillary makes against Obama. The more successful she is at making this argument, the more at a disadvantage Obama will be in a General matchup against McCain. Hillary and Obama seem to be oblivious to the fact that the grand prize in their eyes should be to wrestle the White House away from a Republican. They're more preoccupied on wrestling the White House away from one another.

 

This from Obama Campaign Manager David Plouffe this afternoon, coming from out of all places, Facebook:

The task for the Clinton campaign yesterday was clear. In order to have a plausible path to the nomination, they needed to score huge delegate victories and cut into our lead. They failed. It's clear, though, that Senator Clinton wants to continue an increasingly desperate, increasingly negative -- and increasingly expensive -- campaign to tear us down.…The chatter among pundits may have gotten better for the Clinton campaign after last night, but by failing to cut into our lead, the math -- and their chances of winning -- got considerably worse. Today, we still have a lead of more than 150 delegates, and there are only 611 pledged delegates left to win in the upcoming contests. (Emphasis mine.)

The argument is that it's all about the math. Obama needs fewer delegates to clinch the nomination than she does. It's as simple as that. How do we get there though? Is it going to be a drawn-out struggle for supremacy? Will we go all the way to Puerto Rico in June until the Democrats have a nominee?

Howard Dean showed up on Hardball yesterday claiming that the DNC is ready to have every vote counted, every delegate allotted for. Today Michigan and Florida, the states sans delegates whose voices were muted by the DNC were given a second chance: You can run another primary or another caucus to select your delegates…but it's going to cost you. (In Florida, such a cost would be around $8 Million.)

The math is what's going to stop her. Or rather, I should choose my words more carefully: it's what conventional wisdom now states should stop her. This from the AP's Ron Fournier:

Obama began Tuesday with an 11-race winning streak and a lead in the delegate chase in The Associated Press count, 1,386-1,276. His margin was larger, 1,187-1,035 among pledged delegates chosen in primaries and caucuses.

Clinton has little chance of closing the gap because Democrats allocate most of their delegates proportionally; meaning the loser of a close contest earns nearly as many delegates as the winner. Even as she declared victory in Ohio, Clinton knew that Tuesday's results were unlikely to draw her much closer to Obama.

It doesn't get any better for Clinton after Tuesday. Just for kicks, pencil the New York senator in for landslide victories in Wyoming, Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Kentucky plus narrow victories in Guam, Indiana, North Carolina, Montana and South Dakota scenarios that give her a hefty benefit of the doubt and then some. And what happens?

She still trails Obama.

She trails Obama.

 

The Democrats were supposed to win this one. An unpopular Republican President in the White House was the God-sent for the Democratic Restoration. They were supposed to win it. The American people say that they're tired of the war, that the country is headed in the wrong direction, that the economy is taking a slump, that they want something new in the White House…and yet, the Clinton-Obama feud has produced one clear winner: John McCain. People are voting on security. People recognize that they cannot leave Iraq. Clinton tells people that Obama's message of Hope is nothing more than empty words and emptier promises. Clinton's continuation in the race shows that Obama, now matter how hard he struggles can not defeat the establishment. The Politicos always win. Again, Americans in poll after poll want change. In poll after poll say that they are not happy with the way Congress is doing its job. Yet they'll vote for their incumbent representatives and retain the composition of Congress. Americans say that they want a Democratic President in the White House and not a Republican one. And yet, in poll after poll, John McCain beats both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. The only difference is by what degree.

We are a schizophrenic people.

Junior Super Tuesday 1

Talking Points:

• Hillary will live to fight another day: She's likely to win her first primary in almost a month tonight in Ohio; Texas and Rhode Island are incredibly close
• Obama, I predict will likely win Texas and Rhode Island, however by a slim margin
• Obama: It's all about the delegates. They'll make the argument that no matter how close their popular margin is, Obama's delegates make any Clinton effort extremely ineffective
• Texas: Clinton is winning among Hispanics, Women, and those who made up their minds late in the effort
• NAFTA becoming a big issue with the Obama campaign getting hurt by having his economic advisors apparently talking to Canadian officials trying to calm them down on any possible NAFTA modifications: Those who are against NAFTA are going for Clinton (Can you still believe we're talking about this 14 years later)
• McCain will clinch the nomination tonight; soon the McCain Campaign will take charge of the RNC and use their campaign apparatus
• Huckabee will most likely drop out as the week progresses

In the words of Brit Hume: "This is kind of fun..."

It's 3am

If you look at the videos released two days ago by the Clinton and Obama campaigns, then one would think that world crises only occur at 3am.

The Clinton Campaign started it. They're playing the national security card against Obama now. Make no mistake about it, this is a manifestation of the level of desperation within the Clinton High Command. With the base, this is where Clinton comes off as weak, not Obama. I'm not sure if the Clinton Campaign knows that yet. But it is her vote for authorizing military action in Iraq that doomed her candidacy.

Hillary didn't follow Bill's Laws of Politics:





Hillary's using fear. It's as simple as that. At this week's debate she just came out and said that Obama was going to bomb Pakistan. To which he obviously mentioned that no, that that's not what he in fact said. Hillary's using fear.

The first time I saw the Clinton ad I thought it was a McCain ad. I don't know if it's wise strategy. This week the Clinton campaign hit Obama with the now infamous Obama "Dressed" Photo.

Throwing everything that there is to throw at Obama only makes him more resilient for the General Election campaign. He'll become the Teflon man: Nothing sticks.

Tuesday brings Texas and Ohio to the fore. Texas is going to be a squeaker of an election. Polls that I trust have Obama up anywhere from 2-4 points up. He'll be allocated more delegates disregarding how slim is lead is since most of his strengths fall in areas where more delegates are allocated. Clinton's holding on to Ohio. A couple of week ago, Bill Clinton and James Carville said that if Hillary doesn't win either Texas or Ohio that it's all over. This week Bill came out saying that Hillary was going to win Ohio. They're extending her campaign. Unless Obama pulls off a massive upset, Hillary will see this through Pennsylvania, Vermont, etc., at least through April.

The Democratic Party needs a nominee. General Election campaigns, at this point, nowadays, should be in full swing. It's not Labor Day anymore. It's Valentine's Day. Valentine's Day should be the cutoff as to when the nominees have been chosen. This isn't 1968. Forty years ago this month, Johnson announced that he will not seek nor would he accept his party's nomination for president. Forty years ago this month, Bobby Kennedy announced that he was going to run for president. Fourteen months ago, Barack Obama announced that he was going to run for president. Running for president is now a marathon, not a sprint.

The Democratic Primary has gone on for so long now that McCain is actually taking a break this weekend at his home in Arizona. He'll be taking a lot more breaks if this continues to draw out. Who will tell Hillary it's over? Who will tell Hillary it's time to stop?

It's time to get to the maps. It's time to begin thinking General. It's time to think about Red and Blue states, and sub-constituency politics, and all that good stuff. It's time to begin the race.

And there's one thing that I'm certain about. In 2009 it will be 3am and a phone will ring in the White House. It's not going to be Hillary Clinton who picks it up.

Another will.i.am video

This is another pro-Obama video released by will.i.am, once again featuring prominent celebrities.

What's striking about this one is the number of Latino celebrities in the video. Jessica Alba, George Lopez, Kate del Castillo, etc. Released before tuesday's prima-caucus in Texas, the obvious subtle message in the video is that Latinos would be better off with Obama: