Why Obama Should Quit

DALLAS--

In American political lore we're enamored by the possibility of the underdog defeating the establishment.

I think that's because America still sees itself as the ultimate underdog in the world. But we're the underdog that wins. We're noble and good, and we're faced with a world full of evil tyrants who cause pain, agony, despair. And we'll use our military for humanitarian needs and nation-building when necessary and we'll raise money and donate, and provide food and medicine, and still wave the flag of America and all that it represents. Don't you forget it, no matter what, we're still the United States of America—the last best chance the world has.

It takes a special kind of person to lead the United States of America. We want Saints not Sinners. We want Angels not Demons.

And that's why in some corners we wanted Barack Obama. He seemed so unlike anything we've ever had. He is so unlike anything we've ever had. The press fell in love with him. New voters all across America fell in love and packed stadiums nationwide, from the metropolitan coastal cities to cities in the heartland which still believed in a place called hope. He was it. He brought people from across the political spectrum and promised them that "Yes, we can." That yes, we can bring about change; that yes, there was a better way. And people believed him. They still do. I still do.

But then we saw Rev. Wright who came out of his self-imposed exile this weekend and brought his controversy back to the front of the political fore. Jeremiah Wright was a reminder of the unfounded fears that some Americans have about Barack Obama. They see him as something alien, they think he's a Muslim, there's a church that put on its sign "Obama-Osama: Are They Brothers?" Americans fear what they do not know. And it didn't help that Obama is seen as unpatriotic. Making a point causes him to lose political traction. Why won't he just wear the flag lapel? And why did Michelle Obama say that for the first time ever she's proud of her country and that America in 2008 is a mean country? These are things you do not say when your husband is running for President of the United States. Not wearing the flag lapel is something that you do not do if you're running for President of the United States.

But he seemed to overcome it all. In fact, in today's NBC News-Wall Street Journal poll, Obama still leads Clinton nationwide 46-43% (one must take into account that there was an oversample of Black voters in this poll).But he hasn't won in a while. Yes, he still leads among delegates, among the popular vote and among most states won. But he lost in Pennsylvania and he lost badly. Indiana, neighboring his home state of Illinois, is now in play and Hillary seems to be a contender there. North Carolina down the road may follow South Carolina and give Obama a win. In a previous post I wrote that Hillary should quit not because she was losing but because she was going to gain traction and momentum and win. She has. There's going to be no stopping Hillary now, no matter what. It's too close. This reflects what I wrote in another previous post reflecting on why he can't put her away, and all those factors remain. The Clinton Political War Machine is a force to be reckoned with. Obama still seems too much of a lightweight, too much of an amateur to go against the Clintonistas.

And Obama isn't gaining in the demographics that he needs to win. His sub-constituency coalition is falling apart. He's not targeting the right voters. In South Carolina he was winning among White Men. In union-strong Pennsylvania he lost them. Lately, he's only winning among Blacks, and among the more educated Democratic primary voters. Hillary's winning everything else.

It seems counter-intuitive to suggest that the frontrunner quit. A frontrunner hasn't faced an internal challenge this strong and this heated for the nomination in a while. Hillary believes that this is rightfully hers. She believed that she worked too hard, waited so long and poured so much money and heart and tears (oh the tears!) into this that it's not fair that it's being taken away from her. She's going to stay in this. Dean can't make her get out no matter how much he's telling the super-delegates to have this wrapped up by mid-June. Hillary's expanding, there's no question about it, and she's out to swift-boat Obama before the Republicans get to him. Say what you want about Republicans but we're great at winning elections. Hillary and Bill always knew this and they've always tried to be Republicanesque in how they conduct a viable electoral strategy. Hillary went on O'Reilly tonight for God's sake…

Obama's inability to put her away casts doubt in his ability to win a general election campaign against John McCain this November. McCain gets independents, the Republicans are going to come out for him, and he may even get a substantial Democrat vote. And this is the reason why Obama should quit. Give it to Hillary. McCain-Clinton. Nothing will bring out Republicans in droves to vote for McCain than to have a Clinton on the ballot. They'll come out strong. And in every head-to-head matchup McCain beats Clinton. McCain ties Obama. McCain beats Clinton is the operative event though. It's in Obama's best interest to win the nomination clean and easily. He already fought for this one. Giving this to Hillary makes him noble, makes him a saint, makes him an angel, makes him a gentleman. He showed deference and the party is never going to forget that. He brought the Democratic Party together again. To say nothing of the possibility that McCain might not run for re-election because of his age in 2012. Obama's still a young man. He can wait. The Democratic Party, historically, never forgives its losers. It's not the era of Adlai Stevenson anymore where he kept running over-and-over again. The Democrats give you one chance and you're out. Give Hillary this one. Give it to her and she'll be out and retreat into the hallow chambers of the United States Senate and the Clinton name will become nothing more than an afterthought. Give Obama 4 years to rebuild, regroup, and re-inspire. He'll be stronger in 4 years, he'll be ready. He won't be making amateur mistakes and he'll be the leader that we all expect him to be, that we all know he can be.

So Sen. Obama give it to Sen. Clinton. Her new narrative is the one in which she states ad nauseum that she's the only one that can defeat Sen. McCain. Show America that she's wrong. Show America that ultimately, she's not a winner, but a loser. Show the Democrats how their inability to decide cost them yet another election. Be gracious. Be ready for your turn.

The Long Campaign Continues

It's been nearly a month since I last wrote, and at the end, nothing has changed.

Yes, we've had the revelation that Sen. Obama's spiritual guide, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright apparently asks God to damn America.

And yes, we've had Sen. Clinton's Bosnia fairytale (as Times columnist Frank Rich dubs it)—you know the one where she swears she (and Sinbad and Sheryl Crow) was under sniper-fire while visiting troops in Bosnia during her tenure as first lady. While this had been debunked months ago, the former first lady and former presumptive Democratic nominee for the presidency continued to spew such fibs. It took the CBS Evening News to go back to the pool video and show that Sen. Clinton indeed had a safe landing. She arrived in Bosnia with Chelsea. That CBS Evening News clip was promulgated by Drudge linking to the YouTube video of it. It got more views than Wright's fiery sermons.

It fit the narrative: Clinton's a liar. And isn't that a narrative that fits so well with that family that we're all too familiar with? It's her "I did not have sexual relations with that woman." It harkens back to the narrative that the Bush campaign pinged on Vice-President Gore back in 2000: Al Gore swore he invented the internet.

And everyone's talking about Bosnia and the Clinton campaign is saying that she misspoke and that it's all due to sleep deprivation…this coming from the candidate who said that she's the most prepared to answer that red phone at, yes, 3 in the morning.

And everyone's forgotten about Wright and about the watershed speech that Obama delivered concerning race. That speech, one of the greatest political speeches in a generation, will be only remembered by simple sound bites: "I am the son of a black man from Kenya and a white woman from Kansas" and "I can no more disown him [Wright] than I can my white grandmother - a woman who helped raise me, a woman who sacrificed again and again for me, a woman who loves me as much as she loves anything in this world, but a woman who once confessed her fear of black men who passed by her on the street, and who on more than one occasion has uttered racial or ethnic stereotypes that made me cringe."

That's what happens when you schedule an important and long overdue speech on race in America, in the morning. Rookie mistake.

March wasn't a good month for either Democratic Candidate or the Democratic Party itself. It was full of gaffes and indecision.

***

But where do we go from here?

Clinton has said that she's not going to pull-out. Obviously. She's said that she was going to wait until the people have spoken. Yes, how noble of her. She was going to wait for Pennsylvania…and Puerto Rico to vote. June 3^rd is the last election. DNC Chairman Howard Dean wants this rapped up by July 1^st. But…Clinton spoke to the Washington Post today and said that she wasn't going to rest until Michigan and Florida are counted (where was she when the DNC disenfranchised millions of voters last fall?) and that if it had to come to it, well, that's what the Credentials Committee at the Convention is for. The Credentials Committee! She's going to see this through the very end and take the Democratic National Convention in Denver hostage. She will not give up. She will not surrender. Even if they count Florida and Michigan and even if she wins Pennsylvania, which she's likely to do, it doesn't add up. The delegate count just doesn't add up. It's not going to put her over the top. It's not going to change anything. She'll make the argument that she wins the big states and that she's won more recently—this even though today's revelation that because of the Texas "prima-caucus," Obama actually won there.

And that's the big problem. Bill Maher on Friday's show asked what the big deal was for Clinton to stay in and to allow the process to naturally unfold—to let the voters decide, to make every vote count. The process never unfolds naturally. No one likes a split convention. A couple of years ago I wrote an essay in which I compared the 1968 presidential election to every presidential we've had since. This paragraph is pertinent as to why the Democrats need a nominee by Convention time:

In the battle between perception and reality, it is also important to note the changes and evolutions in nominating conventions. Where 1952 was seen as the first televised convention, 1968 was the first dramatic one. Image-makers not only had to deal with a candidate's image, but also, with the image of the convention itself. Whereas in 1968 at Miami Beach, the Republicans presented a convention of unity and order, the convention at Chicago was anything but. Theodore White stated that "At Chicago, for the first time, the most delicate process of American politics was ruptured by violence, the selection of Presidents stained with blood." Americans were appalled at what was occurring on the streets in Chicago, and what was occurring inside the convention hall. Those watching Walter Cronkite's coverage on the CBS Television Network saw a young Dan Rather being punched on the floor of the Convention Hall and taken down by Convention security, "Cronkite then delivered one of those sound bites that get aired again and again for years to come: 'I think we've got a bunch of thugs in there, Dan'." Then and there, the Democrats' hope for a victory in 1968 ended. The Convention was in such a state of chaos that President Johnson—officially leader of the Democratic Party—did not attend the convention. In 1980, coupled with the important and salient background events which were occurring, there was discontent inside Madison Square Garden where the Democratic National Convention was held, after the sitting President, Jimmy Carter, was challenged by Sen. Edward Kennedy for the presidency, and at the end, we saw the famous image captured by television cameras which displayed the delicate waltz which took place by which Carter and Kennedy never shook hands on the convention stage. This event was seized by the pundits on television and re-played over-and-over again as a sign of disunity in the party. In 1992, it was the Republican's turn to seem extreme and not united. At the Astrodome in Houston, Texas, what was supposed to be a rousing night for Ronald Reagan's last speech at the Convention was split, with Reagan's speech being pushed to 11:00 p.m. and Pat Buchanan taking the 10:00 p.m. primetime hour. This push to a 10:00 p.m. slot made by the networks, especially NBC, cost Bush and his convention the image that they wanted to portray. NBC's executive producer, Bill Wheatley recalls that, "On two separate instances we saw them hold the convention waiting for us to come on the air…We were still in our opening when they introduced [Quayle]. There was this tremendous roar, and Tom [Brokaw] just picked it up." The one that really hurt Bush was Buchanan's speech which "after its opening applause lines for the nominee, went on to summon not only Buchanan's own following but the entire Republican Party to a 'religious war' against gays, inner-city toughs and the likes of Hillary Clinton." That same year at Madison Square Garden, the 1992 Democratic National Convention was perfectly orchestrated, went off without any serious gaffes, and was up-lifting and optimistic. The Republicans came back in 2000 and at Philadelphia, gave key-note speech slots to the likes of Colin Powell, John McCain, Gen. Norman Schwarzkopf, Jr., and Condoleezza Rice. This created the image of a new, moderate Republican Party going along the theme of "Compassionate Conservatism" which Bush wanted to create. On the other hand, at the Staples Center in Los Angeles, there were undercurrents which pointed towards disunity in the party, when Bill Clinton was pushed to a Monday night speech, and then ignored for the rest of the convention. This went in line with the Gore Campaign wanting to distance themselves from Clinton for the General Election, and which many consider might have hurt Gore in his quest for the presidency.

Now I'm not saying that the Democratic Convention in Denver in 2008 will be just like the Democratic Convention in Chicago in 1968. I don't expect violence but I do expect political blood being spilt if Hillary Rodham Clinton takes this to the Credentials Committee and more so, if the Super-Delegates go contrary to whom the pledged Delegates chose. It would be a nomination stolen. If the Super-Delegates indeed overturn the voice of the people, if they overturn the people's choice, then what we will have will be the disenfranchisement anew of Democrats and a party uncontrollable. They'll be yelling bloody murder in the streets of Denver. They denied the first viable Black man the nomination for president of the United States. Obama's leading in the delegate count, most states won, and most votes cast. The Super-Delegates will have no choice but to re-affirm the pledged delegates, which then calls into question the reasoning for the Super-Delegates: if it's just to rubber-stamp and to be redundant…what's the point of their existence?

If Democrat's can't run their own convention, can't control their own people, what gives the American people the confidence that they can run a country?

And I echo David Brooks' belief (another Times columnist) who says that the reason that Hillary Clinton needs to get out is not because she's weak, but because she's strong. And yes, it's a little nonsequitor. Put aside the fact that in today's Gallup tracking poll Obama's lead over Clinton is now at 10-points, with her winning Pennsylvania and a handful of others, she'll continue to make the case that there's momentum for her now, that people want her in it, and that she'll be there for the people. There won't be any stopping her. She'll think that she's it, that she can turn this ship around, that she can salvage this ship who hit the iceberg long ago. It's delusional. She'll take this to the Convention and the whole world will watch what a split convention is. Can you just picture it? There might be walk-outs! Supporters of the losing candidate leaving the hall and the image replayed ad-nauseum on TV for everyone to see. Juxtapose that with McCain's convention. It'll be neat. It'll be orderly. It'll be just like the 2000 Republican love-fest in Philadelphia.

 

This was supposed to be the year of the Democratic Restoration. The economy is going south, the war has hit the 4,000^th American casualty, and the sitting Republican president remains unpopular. This was supposed to be the year of the Democratic Restoration.

It's amazing but the Democrats found a way to blow it again.

624787

John McCain has released his first General Election campaign ad, and wow, it's something else.

He looks poised, ready, and presidential. And more than that, it introduces a number that we're all going to become too familiar with as the General Election campaign begins--once the Democrats of course settle their mess. That number: 624787.

Junior Super Tuesday 1

Talking Points:

• Hillary will live to fight another day: She's likely to win her first primary in almost a month tonight in Ohio; Texas and Rhode Island are incredibly close
• Obama, I predict will likely win Texas and Rhode Island, however by a slim margin
• Obama: It's all about the delegates. They'll make the argument that no matter how close their popular margin is, Obama's delegates make any Clinton effort extremely ineffective
• Texas: Clinton is winning among Hispanics, Women, and those who made up their minds late in the effort
• NAFTA becoming a big issue with the Obama campaign getting hurt by having his economic advisors apparently talking to Canadian officials trying to calm them down on any possible NAFTA modifications: Those who are against NAFTA are going for Clinton (Can you still believe we're talking about this 14 years later)
• McCain will clinch the nomination tonight; soon the McCain Campaign will take charge of the RNC and use their campaign apparatus
• Huckabee will most likely drop out as the week progresses

In the words of Brit Hume: "This is kind of fun..."

It's 3am

If you look at the videos released two days ago by the Clinton and Obama campaigns, then one would think that world crises only occur at 3am.

The Clinton Campaign started it. They're playing the national security card against Obama now. Make no mistake about it, this is a manifestation of the level of desperation within the Clinton High Command. With the base, this is where Clinton comes off as weak, not Obama. I'm not sure if the Clinton Campaign knows that yet. But it is her vote for authorizing military action in Iraq that doomed her candidacy.

Hillary didn't follow Bill's Laws of Politics:





Hillary's using fear. It's as simple as that. At this week's debate she just came out and said that Obama was going to bomb Pakistan. To which he obviously mentioned that no, that that's not what he in fact said. Hillary's using fear.

The first time I saw the Clinton ad I thought it was a McCain ad. I don't know if it's wise strategy. This week the Clinton campaign hit Obama with the now infamous Obama "Dressed" Photo.

Throwing everything that there is to throw at Obama only makes him more resilient for the General Election campaign. He'll become the Teflon man: Nothing sticks.

Tuesday brings Texas and Ohio to the fore. Texas is going to be a squeaker of an election. Polls that I trust have Obama up anywhere from 2-4 points up. He'll be allocated more delegates disregarding how slim is lead is since most of his strengths fall in areas where more delegates are allocated. Clinton's holding on to Ohio. A couple of week ago, Bill Clinton and James Carville said that if Hillary doesn't win either Texas or Ohio that it's all over. This week Bill came out saying that Hillary was going to win Ohio. They're extending her campaign. Unless Obama pulls off a massive upset, Hillary will see this through Pennsylvania, Vermont, etc., at least through April.

The Democratic Party needs a nominee. General Election campaigns, at this point, nowadays, should be in full swing. It's not Labor Day anymore. It's Valentine's Day. Valentine's Day should be the cutoff as to when the nominees have been chosen. This isn't 1968. Forty years ago this month, Johnson announced that he will not seek nor would he accept his party's nomination for president. Forty years ago this month, Bobby Kennedy announced that he was going to run for president. Fourteen months ago, Barack Obama announced that he was going to run for president. Running for president is now a marathon, not a sprint.

The Democratic Primary has gone on for so long now that McCain is actually taking a break this weekend at his home in Arizona. He'll be taking a lot more breaks if this continues to draw out. Who will tell Hillary it's over? Who will tell Hillary it's time to stop?

It's time to get to the maps. It's time to begin thinking General. It's time to think about Red and Blue states, and sub-constituency politics, and all that good stuff. It's time to begin the race.

And there's one thing that I'm certain about. In 2009 it will be 3am and a phone will ring in the White House. It's not going to be Hillary Clinton who picks it up.

The End of the Honeymoon

I want to talk about John McCain.

I've wanted to talk about John McCain for awhile now. Too much press coverage on the Obama-Clinton epic struggle is leaving the Republican frontrunner with little to do, nothing to say, and becoming increasingly irrelevant as his campaign gets pushed back to the third, or fourth, package on the network newscasts.

It's bad timing. Horribly bad. Even last week when he swept through the Potomac Primaries, there he was, following another of Obama's uplifting speeches, with a cast right out of Century Village behind him, and talking about an ever-lasting war and smiling at the wrong times. Obama talks about hope. McCain talks about battle. He's a Debbie Downer.

And who can escape the media drama this Tuesday when Obama, tired of Hillary not admitting defeat, not conceding, and not congratulating him for his tenth-in-a-row victory, cut her off as she was making another primetime campaign stump speech and went on a 45-minute barnburner in Houston. All the networks cut away from Clinton mid-sentence and went to Obama as he still was giving his "thank yous." Hume on Fox had his microphone live and one can hear him screaming to his production crew to "Go" to Obama now. To borrow a phrase from the current Vice-President: the Clinton campaign is in its last throes. Veteran AP Political Writer, Ron Fournier, in the AP wire story which appeared on many newspapers around the country said that it was "panic-button time" in the Clinton Campaign. That explains the "War of Words" this week between both camps and whether or not Obama borrowed phrases from Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick. Then it doesn't help when Michelle Obama goes off saying that she's proud of her country for the first time. It hasn't been a good week for Obama.

But I want to talk about John McCain. Just when it seemed that he was going to go into semi-retirement, to catch his breath, maybe go on a short-vacation, the New York Times splashed a front-page story in today's edition, posting the story online last night at around 7:45pm. Apparently, The Times had been sitting on this story for a couple of months now, at least since December. The appearance is that The Times waited until McCain's frontrunner status was clearly established before they came out to produce this story. In it, The Times suggest that McCain's crusade on ethics and campaign-finance reform is not but a charade. That McCain has failed to practice what he has preached. In addition to that, the article insinuates that there might have been a romantic relationship between McCain and a lobbyist—so much so that during his 2000 presidential race, aides tried to keep her away from the Senator. The Washington Post's version of this led with the confrontation between the aides and the female lobbyist, Vicki Iseman.

Today McCain surrogates defended his actions on the network morning shows. Bob Bennett called it a "non-story" on Today. On Early, McCain Campaign Manager Rick Davis called it "the worst kind of tabloid journalism." At around 9:00am ET, McCain held a presser denouncing the story and any wrongdoing. Cindy McCain, who's had a more visible role in the campaign this week—what with her subtle attack on Michelle Obama's "pride"—said that "he would never do anything to not only disappoint our family, but disappoint the people of America."

The silver lining in this of course is that for the first time in a long while, McCain led the network morning newscasts, he'll probably lead tonight on the network evening newscasts and without a doubt, he'll be the top story on all the cable newsers. On Drudge, he's been the top headline for almost 16-hours now. Rush goes live on the East Coast in an hour, and he'll probably start off with this.

This gives McCain plenty of ammunition. One thing that the Conservative wing of the Republican Party absolutely abhors is The New York Times. Even though this paper previously endorsed John McCain for president, he can now come out and once again accuse The Times of displaying a liberal slant in its coverage and an incredible bias. The Times will be mentioned almost as much as John McCain today—this wouldn't happen if say, it was ABC News that broke this story. It'll be interesting to see if Rush joins the attack on The Times and somehow defend McCain today—the enemy of my enemy is my friend.

As of this post time, Huckabee hasn't come out to publicly mention anything; he'll wait to see how this plays out.

So what is this? I think it's a non-story. If this is the best that The Times has then I think that it either A) Isn't trying hard enough or B) Doesn't have much to begin with. Ethics? Are you kidding me? McCain hasn't even made ethics central to his run this time around. It's all national security all the time. This is an article that would've derailed his candidacy in 2000 which was D.O.A. anyway since the Republican establishment was hovering around Texas Gov. George W. Bush. This article is eight years too late. At the end of the day, McCain can come out winning if he's able to spin this as an unfair attack, another example of the media practicing the "politics of personal destruction." And once again—Ethics? Just imagine if Hillary pulls a miracle and she's the nominee, then the media will really have something to run with; with Billary the question will be, Where do we start?

Potomac Primary 2

McCain wins Virginia amidst a heavy Evangelical turn-out propelling Huckabee competitiveness. Also, Obama beats Clinton in Virginia among Hispanics, 55-45.

Potomac Primary

Obama Big in Virginia and DC, Maryland also trending Obama; McCain Faces Huckabee Strength

Substantial victories which may repeat weekend Obama sweep. Intriguing exit poll data suggesting Obama is increasing support.

Internals:
In Virginia

• Ekes out Clinton on Economy, 60-40
• Splits Whites (Clinton 51, Obama 48)
• Takes women, 58-42. Women are key natural constituency for Clinton
• Wins among college grads and non-college grads
• Took 60% of votes of those who earn less than $50K a year
• Took 60% of votes of those who live with at least 1 Union member in Household

DC big for Obama too. Maryland is expected to come in for Obama according to exit poll trends, yet results will have to wait until 9:30pm due to poll closing extension.

GOP: Virginia and D.C. too close to call, slim lead as of post time for McCain. While it is mathematically improbable for Huckabee to overcome McCain in delegate count, the conservative electorate in the Republican Party is giving McCain a run for his money and trying to prevent inevitability for McCain. That being said, McCain may still come out tonight a lot closer to clinching the nomination.

Results continue to come in…

If It's Saturday...

Obama wins: Lousiana, Nebraska and Washington.

A sweep for Barack Obama, making this the lede in tomorrow morning's Sunday papers.

For the Republicans:

Huckabee wins the GOP caucus in Kansas, GOP primaries in Louisiana and Washington too close to call, with Huckabee leading in Louisiana and McCain in Washington...

Developing...

Update (10:36am ET): Mike Huckabee beats John McCain in Louisiana in a squeaker, 43-42% or by a margin of 2,056 votes; John McCain prevents a Huckabee sweep by winning in Washington, where Ron Paul had a strong showing.

Romney's Out

MITT ROMNEY DROPS OUT OF RACE...

Mitt Romney has seen the numbers, he's not going to pull any delegates to overcome McCain, and he's not willing to push more money towards his campaign.

Sources: Romney "lives to fight for another day..." He's positioning himself for another stab at it in four or eight years.

Romney to announce at CPAC publicly.

Huckabee remains where he'll do strong in other southern primaries, but McCain is now positioned to gather delegates.

Mike Huckabee might follow suit, and suspend his campaign soon, so that the McCain effort can begin forming an offensive against Obama or Clinton.

John McCain will be crowned in St. Paul come August.

Update (1:04ET): Romney at CPAC: "Soon, the face of liberalism in America will have a new name. Whether it is Barack or Hillary... I disagree with Senator McCain on a number of issues, as you know. But I agree with him on doing whatever it takes to be successful in Iraq, on finding and executing Osama bin Laden, and on eliminating Al Qaeda and terror. If I fight on in my campaign, all the way to the convention, I would forestall the launch of a national campaign and make it more likely that Senator Clinton or Obama would win. And in this time of war, I simply cannot let my campaign, be a part of aiding a surrender to terror... This is not an easy decision for me. I hate to lose... If this were only about me, I would go on. But I entered this race because I love America, and because I love America, I feel I must now stand aside, for our party and for our country."

The Post Game Show: Super Tuesday

It's somewhat difficult to thoroughly describe all the moving parts right now. Who's winning? Who's losing? Who's about done? What actually happened last night?

***

The Republicans:

The Republican race is beginning to take on a narrative of inevitability for John McCain. NBC News projects that Sen. McCain has gathered 720 delegates, needing just 471 more delegates before he gets crowned in St. Paul this summer. Govs. Romney and Huckabee trail by a wide margin (256-194). John McCain, who's guerilla campaign in 2000 proved futile against the Bush machine now finds himself, eight years later, as the establishment candidate, the bona fide front-runner, the nominee presumptive of the Republican Party for the office of President of the United States. He is it. No matter the attacks that he's received from right-wing talk radio, especially Rush Limbaugh, the party will coalesce around the McCain candidacy on the assumption that he is indeed the most electable. McCain is sending out olive branches to the different sects which comprise the Republican Party.

Tomorrow, he'll make an appearance at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in Washington D.C., where he has never been a popular figure and has failed to attend the conference in recent years. There, McCain will take on the "Son of Reagan" attributes that he has cloaked around himself since his candidacy began. He'll make the argument that once again, he is a Conservative candidate in the race. Among Conservatives actually, exit polls suggest that McCain is not faring that badly. Among Evangelicals it becomes a different story. Evangelicals are the most loyal voting bloc in the Republican Party and what has prevented Romney from picking up any votes has been Huckabee's candidacy. It is telling that last night, McCain won in states that a Republican will find difficult, if not impossible, to win come November. He picked up New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Illinois, and California; while Huckabee did well in the Solid South, winning in Georgia, Tennessee, Alabama, Arkansas, and West Virginia. Romney prevented humiliation by winning in Massachusetts where McCain had placed a last stand in an effort to strike a death blow to the Romney effort. Romney also did well in traditional Republican states such as Montana, North Dakota, and Utah (where he has a natural constituency).

John McCain is going to have to convince voters that he is one of them. At CPAC, he's going to roll out with a video showing him with Ronald Reagan, his campaign has deployed surrogates (see Dole, Bob) to trump up his Conservative credentials.

Huckabee had a great night last night. It's been the conventional wisdom that Huckabee would be a strong candidate for the Vice-Presidency—a possibility which grew with Huckabee's electoral victories on Super Tuesday. He showed that he's not a one-hit wonder, and that there are many Republican voters that are indeed attracted to his candidacy. Today Huckabee did the morning news shows making the point that while the mainstream media had written him off and made the Republican narrative a two-man race, that it was, and until now, remains a three-man race. Huckabee says that he's not done yet, but he'll pick up and end this in another month. He'll stay in just to show the establishment, and McCain himself, that he is indeed potent and viable.

Romney was supposed to be in meetings today with his staff engaging in "frank" discussions as to where his campaign goes from here. Romney sees the writing on the wall, and he's restrained himself in further attacking McCain. Romney will pull out before the Convention, since he does not want to be a spoiler of inevitability, and he's thinking about the future, four years down the line, eight years down the line, when the party becomes grateful for how he handled himself during this campaign and may indeed favor him for the nomination in the future.

This was always supposed to happen. The Republican Party is the party of order, organization, and hierarchy. The Republicans always crown an heir-apparent and create a standard-bearer. There's no chaos in the Republican Party. There's whose-turn-is-it-now. Over the last election cycles, it's been this way. This is the party that nominates George W. Bush. This is the party that nominates Bob Dole.

In fact, the last two times that there's been chaos at Republican Party conventions were because of Ronald Reagan. The first-time in 1976, the closest we've come to a floor-fight in recent years, occurred because Reagan was viable enough to mount an effort against the sitting president, Gerald Ford, for the nomination. At the end Ford won the nomination but lost the General Election against Jimmy Carter. In 1980, there were some moments of late-night drama when rumors hit the floor that Reagan was in talks with Ford to offer Ford the Vice-Presidency. The negotiations broke apart when no one could figure out exactly how Ford's vice presidency would practically work since he was a former president of the United States. Many spoke of co-presidencies (see Clinton, William J. and Hillary), and at the end, Reagan gave the vice presidency to George H.W. Bush who would create the linear path to the presidency for George W. Bush.

***

The Democrats:

I guess the biggest surprise from last night was Clinton's margin of victory in California. Once again, the "Shock Poll" that was splashed on Drudge all day was wrong. It was New Hampshire all over again. At the end of the day, Clinton won by 10 (52-42), with help from strong Hispanic support, a majority of women voters, and lower-than-expected African-American turnout. Obama won thirteen states, Clinton won 9. She won the big Democratic states, and Obama did well in traditional "Red" states.

The thing about the Democrats…they're tied.

Depending on which delegate projections you believe (I'm sticking with NBC's), it's thisclose. Some projections have Clinton +79. Others are not attempting to project whether the Super Delegates who pledged support will stick by the candidate in the future. Be it as it may, when it comes to delegates—and a Democrat needs 2,025 to win—it's a tie. Super Tuesday did not decide anything. It's made the race tighter, and it will make it longer. Next week the so-called "Potomac Primary" will take place, and many believe that Clinton and Obama will once again split the votes and the delegates there.

The Democrats have two candidates that resonate with their base this time. Nationwide, close to 14 million Democrats voted last night. Clinton won the popular vote by around 53,000 votes—or less than ½ of 1%. It's that close.

Howard Dean has already stated that if by May there's no clear front-runner, no clear winner—which there isn't at this point—that he'll try to step in and broker a deal in order to avoid a floor-fight at the Convention in Denver.

Chris Matthews tried to get his panel to declare who's the front-runner in the Democratic race. No one gave a clear answer. The front-runner is Barack Obama. What he pulled off last night was an astonishing feat. In states where just a couple of months ago he was 20 points, 30 points behind, he was able to narrow the margin, and indeed won some of them.

His biggest win was to ensure that Hillary Clinton is not the inevitable candidate anymore. New Hampshire made Hillary the second incarnation of the "Comeback Kid" but will the future prognostications hold? Conventional Wisdom holds that if Super Tuesday would've been next week and not last night, Obama might have indeed won big in California and in other states where he was making important gains. The momentum's with Obama. He is the knight, and his mission, his journey, as Maureen Dowd wrote today, is "to slay the dragon." And the Dragon can be slain. And the death blow will come not by a sword, but by a wallet.

Obama is about to raise another $30 Million this month. Previously he raised $32 Million in January. Since last night, he's raised $4 Million. His donors haven't been exhausted like Clinton's. Clinton has probably the best fund-raiser in the Democratic Party in the person of Terry McAuliffe, and he can't fundraise anymore. Clinton's donor rolls have been exhausted because most have given the allowable limit. It was shocking when Drudge had a red-colored alert all day today shouting to the world that Clinton had lent herself, err her campaign, $5 Million. That coupled with the news that some of her staffers are now working pro bono—going without pay for this month—suggests a campaign in crisis. Hillary Clinton, the once inevitable candidate, the long-time front-runner, has a cash flow problem. This doesn't happen to a front-runner. And we already had one Lazarus in this campaign.

Super Tuesday Results 4

At the end of the day, it's about the delegates. The widget that I have on the right side-bar denotes the official delegate count as assigned by official election results, according to the NBC News Politics Desk.

Obama and McCain are still awaiting the results coming out of California, which might take awhile to come in. More than a million voters voted with absentee ballots and they need to be counted and can indeed sway the campaign. We may not have substantial numbers until early tomorrow morning.

That being said, McCain is pulling far ahead of Romney in delegate count, and Huckabee might even have more delegates than Romney when all is said and done. If this happens, Huckabee, who until tonight was a one-hit wonder (Iowa) might indeed become viable again and be the "Conservative" alternative to McCain. Depending on what happens in California, McCain may not have this completely locked. Again, it's all California. As of right now (11:33ET), with 6% of precincts reporting, McCain leads Romney by 100,000 votes in California. Romney might indeed not pursue this to the end, positioning himself for another presidential run. He's not that popular within the establishment and he doesn't want to ruin his chances to become the standard-bearer of the party in the future. We might have a Republican nominee by the end of the week, even as early as tomorrow.

The Obama campaign says that their internal Delegate number shows Obama leading 606-534. Conventional wisdom holds than neither candidate on the Democratic side pulls away from a with a substantial delegate margin after tonight, therefore the nominee may indeed take some time to decide, with a small possibility that we'll once again witness an honest-to-God Convention floor fight when the Democrats meet in Denver come late August.

Update (11:45ET): Obama: "Our Time Has Come..."

First Super Tuesday Results...

West Virginia: Huckabee wins Caucus...

As The Page is reporting, there are rumors of a deal between McCain and Huckabee to stop Romney from capturing W. Virginia where he was ahead by 8 votes at the party convention for the delegates. This lends credence to the notion that there might be a McCain-Huckabee ticket come fall, if McCain is indeed the presumptive nominee after tonight.

Huckabee now adds 18 delegates, further making tonight an uphill battle for Romney.

More to come...

Update (3:57 ET): Romney Campaign responds to deal: "Sadly, Senator McCain cut a Washington backroom deal in a way that once again underscores his legacy of working against Republicans."

Update (11:06 ET): Huckabee confirms on MSNBC in an interview with Chris Matthews, saying that there was no deal with the McCain campaign in West Virginia, as was announced by the Romney campaign. Huckabee: "John McCain and I actually believe that politics can be conducted in a civil, gentlemanly way...I know that this may be a shock to the Romney campaign."

Super Tuesday Update

Romney and McCain launch the first shots on Super Tuesday, hijacking the morning news cycle:



Romney went on Fox this morning, after Bob Dole publicly chided Rush Limbaugh yesterday when Dole sent him a letter telling him to stop his public attacks on McCain. Following Romney's statements, McCain has repeatedly called on Romney to apologize. Romney landed in California where Drudge is reporting a new daily tracking shock poll which has him up by 7 there. The same poll has Obama up by 13, yesterday by 6.

Romney also released this web-only ad as he's trying to jump on the bandwagon that Conservatives in the party started trying to derail the McCain inevitability:



The Democrats are being fairly quiet this morning, Barack Obama will be in Chicago, Clinton in New York.

Look at Georgia, Massachusetts, Missouri and New Jersey as they close before 9:00 ET. If Georgia goes big for Obama it's going to be a good night for him. McCain is also trying to embarass Romney in Massachusetts and pick up New Jersey. Missouri is going to be tight, between Clinton and Obama, Obama having the endorsement of popular freshman Senator Claire McCaskill.

The Pre-Game Post: Super Tuesday

I've noticed that in every non-incumbent presidential election there's always a political party which the media favors covering. From the elections that I've witnessed first-hand the party which receives the most media coverage wins. It comes back to the most rudimentary of voting theories: Name I.D. (recognition) is the number one factor which determines electability. In 2000, there was more media attention with the Republicans and the Bush-McCain battle. This year, the media attention lies squarely with the Democrats and the Clinton-Obama battle. Among them, Barack Obama is getting the most media attention. Second to him: Bill Clinton.

***

Tomorrow California votes. Channeling Rather and Nixon, California is the Big Enchilada with 441 delegates. It is not a winner-take all state, so most likely Hillary Clinton and Obama will split the vote. Yet, there's nothing like a person being declared the "winner" of California. As of this morning, there's a statistical tie out there, with Clinton being up, on average (taking into account the latest polls) by .06, while Obama is up by 1 in two polls, and by 6 in the Reuters/C-Span/Zogby poll.

Yesterday on Meet the Press, Carville said that if Clinton doesn't take California, she'll have an uphill battle as the road to the Convention continues. Clinton is counting on support from the major metropolitan areas such as Los Angeles, San Francisco and San Diego. Obama is banking on support from more suburban voters in eastern California. Clinton is also relying on Hispanic turnout to propel her over the top tomorrow. This Hispanic turnout was instrumental in Clinton's "win" over Obama in Nevada—there's something about 10,500 voters with a margin of only 582 votes separating Clinton and Obama that doesn't wreak of a win for Clinton (even though Bush won the presidency in Florida by 537). Clinton pollster Sergio Bendixen received blogosphere fame earlier this year when, in an interview with The New Yorker stated that "The Hispanic voter—and I want to say this very carefully—has not shown a lot of willingness or affinity to support black candidates." Talk about descriptive voting…This might all change tomorrow in California if Obama wins, and especially if he makes substantial in-roads among Hispanic voters. Obama's falling behind Clinton in capturing the Hispanic vote because of name identification. Hispanic voters know the Clinton family, know the Clinton brand. They know Hillary and Bill and they know they're Democrats just like them. Hispanics haven't been introduced to the phenomenon that is Barack Obama. But he's trying to introduce himself, and if he can capture a good percentage of the Hispanic vote, HRC's playbook for California might just become moot. Obama captured an important endorsement just ahead of Super Tuesday: La Opinion, the largest Spanish-language newspaper.

California's going to be big and if the numbers in the Reuters poll holds then it's going to be a good night for the Obama effort. Maria Shriver, California's first lady, has joined her cousin Caroline Kennedy in endorsing Obama. (Her husband, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger has endorsed McCain.) Obama's playing offense against Hillary with Oprah, Caroline Kennedy, and Shriver all in California campaigning for him.

The Democrats also debated last week and it was a venerable love-fest. The acrimony present at the Republican debate—more below—was missing. There was also talk about a "Dream Team" combination. The Democrats had to come back from the brink. After the State of the Union and the supposed "snub"—Obama not shaking Clinton's hand—everything has mellowed out. Leading up to that, and the uncontrollable Bill Clinton spouting his mouth at every opportunity he could, they were both en route to self-destruction and a fragmented convention. If history teaches us anything, it is that the voter's—or at least those that actually tune-in to watch convention coverage, now relegated to one hour a night, three out of the four nights on the broadcast channels—do not like a fragmented convention. It's good that Bill has been reined in. That's no way for a former president of the United States to be behaving.

***

On the Republican side, all signs pointed to the possibility that the party would unite itself around McCain. He's even planning a weekend trip to Europe. His top advisor is planning a vacation. McCain is the most electable, beating both Clinton and Obama—narrowly. Clinton and Obama beat any other Republican running for president.

Apparently the Republican leadership however didn't get the memo. Today's Washington Post is splashing with a front-page story on McCain and most specifically, his temper. This was the top headline on Drudge for many hours in the morning.

McCain has the ability to seal the deal tomorrow night. If he takes California, which all signs point to yes and a number of other states, all he really needs is to be up by at least 100 delegates over Romney. The question will then become as to when Romney is going to call it quits. He has money and he has some of the establishment falling behind him. To say nothing of the fact of Rush Limbaugh who still controls a powerful soapbox is railing against McCain almost on a daily basis. It's also as if he never got the memo that McCain is about to become the standard-bearer of the Republican Party.

***

Super Tuesday is a dress rehearsal for the networks. ABC is going on all-night coverage. CBS is going to do two hours in primetime, and NBC is going to do one, with continuing coverage on MSNBC. The network anchors are in place from their customized election-central sets in New York. The print and on-air, and yes the blogging correspondents are all deployed with their respective campaigns. And this election cycle has shown us that we're all wrong. I was reading some posts I wrote earlier on this blog in which I contended that no matter what happened, Hillary Clinton was unstoppable that she was going to win everything and win big. And that didn't come to fruition.

When Clinton lost in Iowa, all eyes turned to impending death in New Hampshire. The media took her teary-eyed episode the day before as signs that she knew it was all over. Bill was attacking the Obama campaign as being nothing more than a fairy-tale. Today with polls showing Clinton losing her lead in California, there's another semi-tearful episode to report.

But the media wrote the Clinton Campaign obituary after Iowa. She resurrected after New Hampshire, and then became a favorite after meaningless wins in Nevada and Florida, and many still believe that she is inevitable. Even though a great number do not want to see a restoration to another scandal-prone, polarized Clinton White House. Once again, Gore Vidal's belief that we live in the United States of Amnesia harkens truth. It'll be a return to all that we ran away from when we voted for Bush. It'll be a return to the drama, to a state of civil war in Washington. Another do-nothing Administration and another do-nothing Congress. No one really expects Bill Clinton to stay out of policy-making deliberations. A Bill Clinton with nothing to do in the White House is a scary thought. Scary in the sense that he'll run his mouth like he's doing now, causing more harm than good. As Ambassador to the World, he'll do pretty well, since he is almost universally liked outside of America, but there's obviously no chance that he'll stay out of America. Two Clintons in the White House: a shivering thought indeed.

The question is can Obama take it? Even though McCain is the only Republican that beats both Clinton and Obama, he beats Obama narrowly. There are a lot of what-ifs. What if the base isn't as motivated to come out and vote for McCain if he's running against Obama? Who's going to be McCain's running mate? A lot of murmurings surround the question with the belief that it's going to be Huckabee, that that's the only reason why he's remained in the race. By Huckabee staying in, he's siphoning votes off of Romney's potential in-roads. Huckabee joins the ticket and the base will have someone to come out and vote for. There was some press two weeks ago talking about how Romney is not popular with the other contenders. Life as High School. Assuming that it's going to be McCain versus Clinton, it is safe to assume that the base will come out strong for McCain on Election Day. The only thought that scares the base more than one Clinton in the White House is two of them. With Clinton on the top of the ticket, McCain will have more flexibility in choosing a running mate who is more centrist and moderate.

Tomorrow night's going to be big. McCain can become the standard bearer of the Republican Party going forward, and Obama may become the heir to Camelot, ending the, what was once thought of inevitable, Clinton ascendancy.

McCain and Obama: Change versus more of the same. Stay tuned.