Hillary will live to fight another day: She's likely to win her first primary in almost a month tonight in Ohio; Texas and Rhode Island are incredibly close
Obama, I predict will likely win Texas and Rhode Island, however by a slim margin
Obama: It's all about the delegates. They'll make the argument that no matter how close their popular margin is, Obama's delegates make any Clinton effort extremely ineffective
Texas: Clinton is winning among Hispanics, Women, and those who made up their minds late in the effort
NAFTA becoming a big issue with the Obama campaign getting hurt by having his economic advisors apparently talking to Canadian officials trying to calm them down on any possible NAFTA modifications: Those who are against NAFTA are going for Clinton (Can you still believe we're talking about this 14 years later)
McCain will clinch the nomination tonight; soon the McCain Campaign will take charge of the RNC and use their campaign apparatus
Huckabee will most likely drop out as the week progresses
In the words of Brit Hume: "This is kind of fun..."
If you look at the videos released two days ago by the Clinton and Obama campaigns, then one would think that world crises only occur at 3am.
The Clinton Campaign started it. They're playing the national security card against Obama now. Make no mistake about it, this is a manifestation of the level of desperation within the Clinton High Command. With the base, this is where Clinton comes off as weak, not Obama. I'm not sure if the Clinton Campaign knows that yet. But it is her vote for authorizing military action in Iraq that doomed her candidacy.
Hillary didn't follow Bill's Laws of Politics:
Hillary's using fear. It's as simple as that. At this week's debate she just came out and said that Obama was going to bomb Pakistan. To which he obviously mentioned that no, that that's not what he in fact said. Hillary's using fear.
The first time I saw the Clinton ad I thought it was a McCain ad. I don't know if it's wise strategy. This week the Clinton campaign hit Obama with the now infamous Obama "Dressed" Photo.
Throwing everything that there is to throw at Obama only makes him more resilient for the General Election campaign. He'll become the Teflon man: Nothing sticks.
Tuesday brings Texas and Ohio to the fore. Texas is going to be a squeaker of an election. Polls that I trust have Obama up anywhere from 2-4 points up. He'll be allocated more delegates disregarding how slim is lead is since most of his strengths fall in areas where more delegates are allocated. Clinton's holding on to Ohio. A couple of week ago, Bill Clinton and James Carville said that if Hillary doesn't win either Texas or Ohio that it's all over. This week Bill came out saying that Hillary was going to win Ohio. They're extending her campaign. Unless Obama pulls off a massive upset, Hillary will see this through Pennsylvania, Vermont, etc., at least through April.
The Democratic Party needs a nominee. General Election campaigns, at this point, nowadays, should be in full swing. It's not Labor Day anymore. It's Valentine's Day. Valentine's Day should be the cutoff as to when the nominees have been chosen. This isn't 1968. Forty years ago this month, Johnson announced that he will not seek nor would he accept his party's nomination for president. Forty years ago this month, Bobby Kennedy announced that he was going to run for president. Fourteen months ago, Barack Obama announced that he was going to run for president. Running for president is now a marathon, not a sprint.
The Democratic Primary has gone on for so long now that McCain is actually taking a break this weekend at his home in Arizona. He'll be taking a lot more breaks if this continues to draw out. Who will tell Hillary it's over? Who will tell Hillary it's time to stop?
It's time to get to the maps. It's time to begin thinking General. It's time to think about Red and Blue states, and sub-constituency politics, and all that good stuff. It's time to begin the race.
And there's one thing that I'm certain about. In 2009 it will be 3am and a phone will ring in the White House. It's not going to be Hillary Clinton who picks it up.
